617
FXUS61 KOKX 161856
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE
NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY NOSES INTO
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND
EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. THIS LOW STRENGTHENS AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRACKS JUST OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY. THE
LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT HAVE MAINLY
RISEN TO OR ABOVE FREEZING, WITH JUST POCKETS OF TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. WITH NO WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED HAVE
ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
ALSO, WITH THE HRRR SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY HAVING MOVED
THROUGH THE REGION, CONVERTED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER TO
ISOLATED.
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND AT 16Z WAS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY, AND INTO THE OCEAN WATER, NORTH
OF BUOY 44025, AND EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD, AND IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY LIFT TOWARD THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AT 16Z WILL PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SECONDARY
LOW OVER THE DELAWARE BAY IN ASSOCIATION OF THE WARM FRONT.
THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS IT HEADS UP INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT, WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LLJ, WITH A 75-85 KT CORE AT
925 MB PASSING NEAR OR OVER FAR EASTERN LI THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG THERMAL FORCING WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN,
POSSIBLY EMBEDDED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL FROM
NYC AND POINTS EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS SURGING IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT
THE WARM FRONT TO ENHANCE THE LIFT ALONG THE COAST WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THEN AGAIN AREAWIDE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE AREA WILL
INITIALLY BE CAPPED BY A STRONG LOW- LEVEL INVERSION, HOWEVER,
AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN SECTIONS, IT WILL
WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
(GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH) TO BRIEFLY IMPACT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO HAVE RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS LI AND CT. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 KT GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PRESSURE
RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. WINDS AT THE TOP OF MIXED LAYER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KT, AND ON
AVERAGE ABOUT 40 KT THROUGH THE LAYER. HOWEVER, HAVE CANCELLED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH AND REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY. NBM AND
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR WINDS OF 50KT SHOW ONLY LOW CHANCES. IT
WOULD ALSO BE UNLIKELY TO CONSISTENTLY MIX DOWN FROM THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTS
40-50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEB FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
* QUITE COLD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
* THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TOWARDS MID
WEEK (WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY), ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TREND IS
FURTHER EAST.
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER
THE AREA DUE THE DEPARTING LOW THAT WILL SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT AND STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
(1050-1054 MB) THAT BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. W WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST, WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH IN THE
EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY. AS THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVES
SOUTH, A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES, ALLOWING
LOW PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS LOW THEN TREKS EAST ALONG
THE GULF STATES, CROSSES THE FL PANHANDLE, THEN GETS ALONG AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY, PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE 0Z 16 FEB RUNS SHOWS THE GUIDANCE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MORE
BULLISH ON A SIGNIFICANT MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SNOWSTORM (ECMWF, UKMET, CMC) HAD ADJUSTED EAST SOME. THE 0Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A TREND IN ITS PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS OF BEING A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THE DIFFERENCES OVERALL APPEAR TO BE MORE WITH THE SFC
PROGS AND NOT AS MUCH AT 500 MB. THE DIFFICULTY IN THIS PARTICULAR
SITUATION APPEARS TO REST WITH HOW THE NORTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW
INTERACTS WITH ANY SUPPRESSED PACIFIC ENERGY. WILL THE PACIFIC
ENERGY GET TOO FAR OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WHERE
THE INTERACTION WILL BE LESS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW
WILL THEN HAVE LESS LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH?
THIS IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM AND NOW MOVE IT ALONG QUICKLY. THUS, HAVE NOW
LOWERED POPS FOR THU NIGHT AS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
VARIOUS GLOBAL CAMPS TO EXIT THE SYSTEM FASTER.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM EXPECT IT TO BE BRISK AND COLD FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ON A NW FLOW REGIME. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE
PRIMARILY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A CP AIR MASS IN PLACE.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE CITY AND EASTERN TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY
IN THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH VSBY LOWERING TO IFR AT TIMES IN
RAIN AND FOG BEFORE THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TERMINALS BETWEEN 23-00Z WITH CIGS IMPROVING
TO MVFR, THEN VFR.
LLWS FROM THE SW INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 30-50 KNOTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION IN TAFS FOR KJFK, KISP, KBDR, AND KGON DUE
TO PROXIMITY TO THE LOW LEVEL JET. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND GUSTY
AFTER WARM FROPA, THEN SHIFT W WITH COLD FROPA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH LATE MONDAY, THEN BEGINS TO DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY: VFR. W WINDS G35-40KT, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: BECOMING IFR IN SNOW.
THURSDAY: MVFR / IFR IN SNOW. N WINDS G20KT, BECOMING NW G25KT LATE
IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY:VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG WEST WINDS LATER THIS
EVENING. EXPECT A PERIOD OF PRE-FRONTAL SW GALE/STORM-FORCE
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWING BY A WESTERLY GALE/STORM-FORCE
GUSTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 40-50KT WITH SEASON ON
THE OCEAN BUILDING TO 11 TO 19 FT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT, AND 5 TO
8 FT ON LI SOUND.
WITH A STRONG W FLOW LOW WATER BENCHMARKS MAY BE APPROACHED IN
A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY LOW
TIDE CYCLES. GALE CONDITIONS PREVAILING MONDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
WITH SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OCEAN SEAS GET DOWN
TO AROUND 2 FT. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY RETURN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM
GETS OFF THE COAST AND A NW FLOW INCREASES.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEEKEND'S STORM
SYSTEM AND THROUGH THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...20
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
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