405
FXUS61 KOKX 170019
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
719 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA EARLY
THIS EVENING TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE LOW
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT TO PUSH OFFSHORE, WITH THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE.
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION WHILE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR EXTREME
EASTERN AREAS. EASTERN AREA SHOWERS WILL END PRETTY QUICKLY AS
SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 55 MPH.
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG GRADIENT WESTERLY FLOW, GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING,
45 TO NEAR 55 MPH, AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE
DAY WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH,
AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING. HOWEVER, GUSTY WEST FLOW
WILL BE CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY
INTO THE REGION.
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS, AND WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY REMAINING IN THE 20S, TEMPERATURES WILL NE NEAR 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
* THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
WED NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
1050-1054 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH, A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP
OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES, ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO TAKE
SHAPE. THIS LOW THEN TREKS EAST ALONG THE GULF STATES, AND EJECTS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST
INTO THURSDAY, PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE, MOST MODELS TRACK THE
LOW WELL EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. CURRENT NBM FORECAST ALSO
SHOWS AN ALL SNOW FORECAST, LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AN ALL
SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER, THESE MODELS HAVE A STORM TRACK MUCH FARTHER
EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS, PUSHING MORE MOISTURE OUT TO
SEA WITH IT. AS SUCH, THE CHANCES FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAS
DECREASED.
AS FOR ENSEMBLES, CURRENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE GIVE COASTAL AREAS A 10-30%
CHANCE OF 24 TOTAL PRECIP OF GREAT THAN HALF AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT, DOWN FROM 30-40% FROM YESTERDAY, WHILE THE SAME METRIC
IS ONLY 10-20% WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITY OF 0.60" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
(WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA IN 12 HOURS WITH 10:1 RATIO) SHOWS A
10-30% CHANCE IN 12 HOURS. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE BEING PUSHED
FARTHER EAST WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, SHOWING THE TREND OF
MOISTURE BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE.
LOW PRESSURE TREKS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING DRY, BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH MOST OF THE TERMINALS WILL SWING
EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND CT EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN SLOWLY BUILD IN ITS WAKE THROUGH MONDAY.
FROPA BRINGS RAPIDLY IMPROVING FLIGHT CAT AND ALSO WIND SHIFT TO
W WITH SUSTAINED 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WINDS G30-35KT EARLY, DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
THURSDAY: SNOW LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR COND. NW WINDS G20-25KT,
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO
EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN ON THE NON OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, EXCEPT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR
THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, AND THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS.
ONCE THE STORM WARNING ENDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS, GALES WILL BE
LIKELY INTO MONDAY EVENING, EXCEPT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
WHERE GALES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW THAT
TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH A WEST FLOW.
WITH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT, AND
REMAINING INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND IN COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS, THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WITH THE LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY ICE ACCRETION PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.
ALSO, WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DRIVING WATER OFFSHORE,
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE APPROACHING LOW WATER THRESHOLDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATE DAY
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY LOW TIDE CYCLES.
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS,
BUT DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD
FALL BELOW 25 KT LATE AT NIGHT, BUT OCEAN WATERS MAY HANG ON TO
SOME 25 KT GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
STORM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
AND 25 KT GUSTS MAY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE STORM
TRACK, WHICH HAS BEEN PROGRESSING FARTHER EAST WITH EACH RUN.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THE HIGHER GUSTS MAY PUSH EAST AS WELL.
4 TO 7 FT WAVES ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS DIMINISH
THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND SHOULD FALL BE 5 FT ON ALL OCEAN WATERS
AT OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE CENTRAL SOUND MAY SEE
SOME 5 FT WAVES AS WELL, BUT SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FT AROUND OR
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES THEN REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AGAIN, THIS WOULD ALL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL STORM.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...20/BG
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
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