654
FXUS61 KOKX 170506
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1206 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
COLD FRONT IS WELL EAST, WITH BKN-OVC STRATOCU FIELD COVERING
MOST OF THE AREA ATTM. WITH COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG GRADIENT
WESTERLY FLOW, GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH 45 TO NEAR 55
MPH AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE DAY
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH,
AND COLD ADVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING. HOWEVER, GUSTY WEST FLOW
WILL BE CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY
INTO THE REGION.
COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMALS, AND WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY REMAINING IN THE 20S, TEMPERATURES WILL NE NEAR 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
* THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE
WED NIGHT - THU NIGHT TIME FRAME.
A 1050-1054 MB ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST TUESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH, A BAROCLINIC ZONE
SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES, ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO BEGIN
TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS LOW THEN TREKS EAST ALONG THE GULF STATES,
AND EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY, PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE, MOST MODELS TRACK THE
LOW WELL EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. CURRENT NBM FORECAST ALSO
SHOWS AN ALL SNOW FORECAST. HOWEVER, THESE MODELS HAVE A STORM
TRACK MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST RUNS, PUSHING
MORE MOISTURE OUT TO SEA WITH IT. AS SUCH, THE CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM HAVE DECREASED.
THE LOW WILL MOVES NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION
BKN VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MON, WITH W
WINDS SUSTAINED 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT. WINDS SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WINDS G30-35KT EARLY, DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF SNOW WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBY.
THURSDAY: SNOW LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR COND. NW WINDS G20-25KT,
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, EXCEPT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE
EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, AND THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND BAYS.
ONCE THE STORM WARNING ENDS ON THE OCEAN WATERS, GALES WILL BE
LIKELY INTO MONDAY EVENING, EXCEPT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS
WHERE GALES WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW THAT
TRACKS NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING WITH A WEST FLOW.
WITH COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST WATERS TONIGHT, AND
REMAINING INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND IN COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND HIGH SEAS, THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME WITH THE LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY ICE ACCRETION PER HOUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 0.3 INCHES PER HOUR, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE NEEDED.
ALSO, WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW DRIVING WATER OFFSHORE,
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL BE APPROACHING LOW WATER THRESHOLDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATE DAY
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY LOW TIDE CYCLES.
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS,
BUT DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD
FALL BELOW 25 KT LATE AT NIGHT, BUT OCEAN WATERS MAY HANG ON TO
SOME 25 KT GUSTS THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, WINDS
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL
STORM MAY IMPACT THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
AND 25 KT GUSTS MAY COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE STORM
TRACK, WHICH HAS BEEN PROGRESSING FARTHER EAST WITH EACH RUN.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THE HIGHER GUSTS MAY PUSH EAST AS WELL.
OCEAN SEAS 4-7 FT TUE NIGHT DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FT ON ALL OCEAN WATERS AT OR JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK WED. THE CENTRAL SOUND MAY SEE SOME 5 FT WAVES AS
WELL, BUT SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FT AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WAVES THEN REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT BUILD TO 5 TO
7 FT THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AGAIN, THIS WOULD ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A LONG DURATION PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE (WESTERLY) FLOW MAY
CAUSE A FEW SPOTS TO EXPERIENCE LOW WATER CONDITIONS AROUND
THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE INTO TUE EVENING, MAINLY ALONG RARITAN
BAY, THE NORTH SHORE OF NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK, AND POSSIBLY
THE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND, WITH WATER LEVELS AS LOW AS 2 FEET
BELOW MLLW. A LOW WATER ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED IF
WATER LEVELS FALL MUCH MORE BEYOND THAT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BG/JP/MET
NEAR TERM...BG/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...20/BG
MARINE...BG/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG
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