645
FXUS61 KOKX 172300
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
600 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AS A
STRONG HIGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL US. THE HIGH GRADUALLY
WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE ADVISORY
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A GUST OR
TWO TO 40KT THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE CT ZONES WHERE SOME
GUIDANCE HAS WINDS ALOFT INCREASING. HOWEVER, WINDS WITH THIS
UPDATE WERE ACTUALLY A BIT LOWER THAN THE FORECAST, SO LOWERED
SUSTAINED AND GUSTS A FEW KT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM A FEW
POSSIBLE FLURRIES OVER SOUTHERN CT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
COLD AND BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS AN ONLY
AROUND 20 IN THE CITY. WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR NYC METRO AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SHORT OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
STILL BREEZY FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40MPH. DRY, MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT COLDER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY 25-30 IN MOST SPOTS. WIND CHILLS RISE
ONLY INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL AT LEAST DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SHIFTS CLOSER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS WITH
MINIMUM WIND CHILLS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT DUE TO THE
WEAKER WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
* CHANCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE WED NIGHT
TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
* REMAINING COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
1050-1058 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THOUGH AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTH, LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TREK EAST AND EJECT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE EXITING WELL OUT TO SEA. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SUITE CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE LOW PASSING WELL EAST OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK. CURRENT NBM OF 6" OR GREATER IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD IS
0% FROM ABOUT CENTRAL LONG ISLAND WESTWARD, WITH ABOUT A 20% CHANCE
FOR MONTAUK. IN FACT, CHANCE OF AN INCH OR GREATER RANGES FROM ONLY
45% FOR THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND, TO ABOUT 15% ACROSS NORTHEAST
NJ.
THE LOW PASSES OUT TO SEA REGARDLESS BY LATE THURSDAY, AND HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH REMAINS WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.
AS FOR ENSEMBLES, CURRENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE GIVE COASTAL AREAS A 10-30%
CHANCE OF 24 TOTAL PRECIP OF GREAT THAN HALF AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT, DOWN FROM 30-40% FROM YESTERDAY, WHILE THE SAME METRIC
IS ONLY 10-20% WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITY OF 0.60" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
(WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA IN 12 HOURS WITH 10:1 RATIO) SHOWS A
10-30% CHANCE IN 12 HOURS. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE BEING PUSHED
FARTHER EAST WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, SHOWING THE TREND OF
MOISTURE BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE.
LOW PRESSURE TREKS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING DRY, BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY, AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUESDAY, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
VFR. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
AND GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. W WINDS G30 TO 35 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE NEW YORK
CITY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20 TO 25 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A GALE WARNING HAS REPLACED THE STORM WARNING ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WITH OBSERVED GUSTS FALLING BELOW STORM WARNING CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NOW. GALE WARNINGS LAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ON THE NON-
OCEAN WATERS, AND COVERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN. THE
WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW HOURS BEYOND THIS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET. EXPECTING SOME LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT NOT HEAVY ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN, AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS, THERE IS A CHANCE OF FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME, ICE ACCRETION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS SHOULD ONE BE NEEDED.
WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A COASTAL LOW, SCA FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED (WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LINGERING 5 FT WAVES WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE). WINDS AND WAVES BUILD THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND AN INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE
INCREASES. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25 TO 30 KT,
WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT. CONDITIONS RETURN TO SUB-SCA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
BASED ON OBSERVED TIDES DURING THE LOW TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING AND
GUIDANCE FROM P-ETSS/NAEFS AND THE 5TH PERCENTILE NYHOPS, HAVE
ISSUED A LOW WATER ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING ALONG WESTERN LI SOUND
AS WELL AS PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS. ANTICIPATING LEVELS TO DROP
TO -2 TO -2.5 MLLW. NOT AS CONFIDENT FOR WIDESPREAD LOW WATER ISSUES
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK COUNTY AS WELL AS ALONG STATEN
ISLAND, BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG W
TO WNW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED LOW TIDES WILL POSE A
THREAT OF LOW WATER ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE LOW TIDE CYCLES
DURING TUESDAY MORNING AND NIGHT FOR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS, PARTICULARLY WHERE THE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JP
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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