378
FXUS61 KOKX 180605
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
105 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT AS A
STRONG HIGH DROPS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL US. THE HIGH GRADUALLY
BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. COLD AND BRISK WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS AN
ONLY AROUND 20 IN THE CITY. WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR NYC METRO AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO ELSEWHERE. THIS IS SHORT OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
STILL BRISK FOR TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST,
WITH WNW WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40MPH. IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY
BUT COLDER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY 25-30 IN MOST SPOTS.
WIND CHILLS RISE ONLY INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL AT LEAST DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
CLOSER. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS WITH
MINIMUM WIND CHILLS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF TONIGHT
DUE TO THE WEAKER WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
* CHANCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE WED NIGHT
TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
* REMAINING COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
1050-1058 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THOUGH AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTH, LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO TREK EAST AND EJECT OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TO SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE EXITING WELL OUT TO SEA. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC
MODEL SUITE CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE LOW PASSING WELL EAST OF THE
40/70 BENCHMARK. CURRENT NBM OF 6" OR GREATER IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD IS
0% FROM ABOUT CENTRAL LONG ISLAND WESTWARD, WITH ABOUT A 20% CHANCE
FOR MONTAUK. IN FACT, CHANCE OF AN INCH OR GREATER RANGES FROM ONLY
45% FOR THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND, TO ABOUT 15% ACROSS NORTHEAST
NJ.
THE LOW PASSES OUT TO SEA REGARDLESS BY LATE THURSDAY, AND HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ONCE AGAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH REMAINS WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING DRY BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.
AS FOR ENSEMBLES, CURRENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE GIVE COASTAL AREAS A 10-30%
CHANCE OF 24 TOTAL PRECIP OF GREAT THAN HALF AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT, DOWN FROM 30-40% FROM YESTERDAY, WHILE THE SAME METRIC
IS ONLY 10-20% WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS
YESTERDAY. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITY OF 0.60" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
(WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA IN 12 HOURS WITH 10:1 RATIO) SHOWS A
10-30% CHANCE IN 12 HOURS. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE BEING PUSHED
FARTHER EAST WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, SHOWING THE TREND OF
MOISTURE BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE.
LOW PRESSURE TREKS NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, PROVIDING DRY, BUT COLD
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
W WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT MOST SITES OVERNIGHT SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 13Z TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT, THEN
DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AFTER 23Z-24Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WNW WINDS 15G20-25KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. STILL A CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR ESPECIALLY E OF THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS. NW WINDS G20KT AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS, THROUGH TUE AM ON
THE NON OCEAN WATERS AND THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN.
THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW HOURS BEYOND THIS
ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET. EXPECTING SOME
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ON ALL WATERS INTO WED, BUT NOT HEAVY
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A COASTAL LOW, SCA
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS WED MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN OCEAN WATERS). WINDS AND SEAS BUILD THU NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND AN INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE INCREASES. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REACH 25-30
KT, WITH SEAS 4-6 FT. COND RETURN TO SUB-SCA LATE FRI NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG W-WNW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
LOW TIDES WILL POSE A THREAT OF LOW WATER CONDITIONS FOR THE
LOW TIDE CYCLES TUE AM/PM FOR THE WESTERN SOUND AS WELL AS
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS, POSSIBLY THE NORTH SHORE OF SUFFOLK
COUNTY AND AROUND STATEN ISLAND AND NEWARK BAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG/JP
NEAR TERM...JC/JP
SHORT TERM...JC/BG
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BG/DW
MARINE...JC/BG/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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