622
FXUS61 KOKX 190928
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
428 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY WILL BUILD
IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BROAD SHEARED POLAR TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLOWLY RELENTS AS A PIECE OF A STRONG 1050 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL US BUILDS IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE SPRAWLING
LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC TOWARD GREENLAND. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO LIGHTEN FROM THE BRISK CONDITIONS THE REGION HAS
EXPERIENCED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
AFTER ANOTHER FRIGID START, TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE TEENS DOWN
TO THE COAST AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO, IT
REMAINS SUB FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON, FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30.
INTO TONIGHT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH, BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUD CANOPY GRADUALLY THICKENS AND
LOWERS THRU THE DAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO
SNOWFALL LOCALLY THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND, MAINLY THE SOUTH FORK, WHERE
A LIGHT SNOWFALL ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE.
PERHAPS MORE LIKELY THAN FROM THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THE VIGOROUS PARENT UPPER
LOW PASSES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM
THE SURFACE LOW MAY ALSO AID THIS POSSIBILITY WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT. HI RES CAMS HINT AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING THRU LATE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, AND ACCUMULATION, IF
ANY, IS LIKELY LIMITED TO A COATING AT BEST IN AREAS THAT DO SEE
PRECIP. OTHERWISE, OVERCAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
* A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A CONFLUENT, PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1040MB+) CENTERED
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GUSTY NW FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH, WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES THEN DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES, SENDING CLIPPER LOWS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
AND/OR SNOW DURING THIS TIME. THERE ARE SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FOR THE MOST PART STAYED CLOSE TO
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT TUESDAY, EXPECTING READINGS ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50, AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
WNW-NW WINDS MOSTLY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
TO 20 KT MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF LULL EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN RESUME
AT 10-15KT WITH GUSTS JUST OVER 20 KT AFTER ABOUT 13Z-14Z. GUSTS
SHOULD ABATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN,
THEN WINDS BECOME NW LESS THAN 10 KT AT NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL FROM ABOUT 09Z-13Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS E OF THE NYC METROS, OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT AT
NIGHT.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25 KT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WNW OR NW FLOW TODAY WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25 KT GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ON ALL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EXPIRE EVERYWHERE BY 1 PM. THEREAFTER, SUB SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER FLOW AND SEAS. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL WATERS, THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
THE OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOW WATER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH LIGHTENING WINDS,
BUT WATER LEVELS DURING LOW TIDES TODAY MAY STILL RUN 1 TO 1.5
FT BELOW MLLW ALONG PARTS OF THE WESTERN LI SOUND AND THE
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-
335-338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ332-
340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR
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