868
FXUS61 KOKX 191427
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
927 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, A LARGE DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS WILL THEN APPROACH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. BROAD SHEARED POLAR TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN
PLACE TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
RELENTS AS A PIECE OF A STRONG 1050 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL US BUILDS IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE SPRAWLING LOW
PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC TOWARD GREENLAND. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO LIGHTEN FROM THE BRISK CONDITIONS THE REGION
HAS EXPERIENCED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUB FREEZING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30. WHILE WINDS WEAKEN INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WIND CHILLS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS IN
THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 THIS AFTERNOON.
INTO TONIGHT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH, BEFORE
PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUD CANOPY GRADUALLY THICKENS AND
LOWERS THRU THE DAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALOFT.
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY, WITH LITTLE TO NO
SNOWFALL LOCALLY THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND, MAINLY THE SOUTH FORK, WHERE
A LIGHT SNOWFALL REMAINS AN UNLIKELY, BUT POSSIBLE, SOLUTION.
PERHAPS MORE LIKELY THAN FROM THE SURFACE LOW, POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AS THE VIGOROUS PARENT UPPER LOW
PASSES OVER THE REGION INTO THURSDAY EVENING. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING BACK FROM THE
SURFACE LOW MAY ALSO AID THIS POSSIBILITY WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT.
HI RES CAMS HINT AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
THRU LATE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DOES DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, AND ACCUMULATION, IF ANY,
IS LIKELY LIMITED TO A COATING AT BEST IN AREAS THAT DO SEE
PRECIP. OTHERWISE, OVERCAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
* A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A CONFLUENT, PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1040MB+) CENTERED
OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY TO BUILD EAST AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GUSTY NW FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH, WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE HIGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES THEN DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES, SENDING CLIPPER LOWS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN
AND/OR SNOW DURING THIS TIME. THERE ARE SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND FOR THE MOST PART STAYED CLOSE TO
THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, BUT GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT TUESDAY, EXPECTING READINGS ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50, AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE THEN PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WNW WINDS MOSTLY LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS A
MID LEVEL DECK OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS. WINDS THEN BECOME NW-N
TONIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER IN LIGHT SNOW MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS E OF THE NYC METROS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25 KT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS ON THE SOUND, BAYS, AND HARBOR ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
BELOW 25 KT. HAVE THEREFORE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY HERE. THERE
MAY BE AN OCCASIONAL GUST ON THE EASTERN SOUND EAST OF THE CT
RIVER, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE, THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN CONTINUES THROUGH 1 PM. THEREAFTER, SUB SCA CONDITIONS
PERSIST THRU THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER FLOW AND SEAS. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL WATERS, THEN WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
THE OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FOLLOWED BY A WEAK TROUGH.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOW WATER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH LIGHTENING WINDS,
BUT WATER LEVELS DURING LOW TIDES TODAY MAY STILL RUN 1 TO 1.5
FT BELOW MLLW ALONG PARTS OF THE WESTERN LI SOUND AND THE
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...IRD/DW
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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