735
FXUS61 KOKX 202234
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
534 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA
TONIGHT, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY, AND REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NYC, NE NJ, WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY LIKELY POP FOR
THOSE AREAS, AND ALSO HAVE CHANCE POP INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN CT
MAINLY OVER FAIRFIELD COUNTY AND TOWARD THE COAST. QPF REMAINS
LIGHT, LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN GENERAL, AND CORRESPONDING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN FROM A COATING TO AROUND
A HALF INCH. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 1 INCH TOTAL IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
LONG ISLAND WHERE FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
STRONGER. SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AND SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING. STILL, SOME LOCALES MAY NOT SEE ANY SNOW
WHATSOEVER, OR JUST A FEW FLURRIES, LARGELY STAYING MAINLY DRY
AND OVERCAST INSTEAD, ESPECIALLY INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT.
CLOUDS THIN OUT REGARDLESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND THE
STRONG INLAND HIGH, WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE DECOUPLING. LOW TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS INLAND, TO EITHER SIDE OF 20 IN NYC AND
ALONG THE COAST, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST
PLACES, AND AS LOW AS 0 IN SPOTS WELL INLAND.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, BLUSTERY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRI
INTO FRI NIGHT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE WEST
AT IT BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND
AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE NYC METRO AREA EXPECTED
FRI AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S BY
AFTERNOON.
FLOW RELAXES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER, AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S.
WINDS RELAX BY DAYTIME SAT AND BACK WSW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
HIGH REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS 35-40.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
KEY POINTS:
* A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH 50 DEGREES IN METRO NE
NJ AND NYC.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
* A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK.
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A NW FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. THE
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FEW SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. THESE APPEAR MOISTURE STARVED AND MAY ONLY BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS POPS
REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND WEAK LIFT.
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THE FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BRING A RETURN TO HIGH
PRESSURE. A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MAY FOLLOW LATE NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELING IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE
PATTERN, BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRACK OF AN
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. DETAILS
ON ITS TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN THIS IS A WEEK OUT. FOLLOWED THE
NBM/MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION
YIELDING MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN. WILL FOLLOW THE NBM, BUT CAP PRECIP
PROBABILITIES OFF AT CHANCE FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT AND
THE TIMING COULD EASILY CHANGE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY.
VFR WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER
CONDITIONS IN SNOW ESPECIALLY FOR CITY TERMINALS. THERE IS SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ONSET AND NORTHEAST EXTENT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ACROSS CT. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
NW FLOW 10-15G20 KT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. MORE GUSTS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING, AND MAY BE
MORE OCCASIONAL UNTIL TOWARD 00Z. WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-35 KT AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWERING CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY
EXCEED 30 KT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G25 KT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA COND ABOUT TO BEGIN ON NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN OCEAN
WATERS SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AN CONTINUE ON
ALL WATERS THROUGH DAYTIME FRI. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT.
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH FRI NIGHT, FIRST BY EVENING ON THE WESTERN
SOUND, THEN ON NY HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS BY MIDNIGHT
FRI NIGHT.
OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING 5-FOOTERS ON THE OUTER ERN
OCEAN WATERS EARLY SAT AM, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS FROM SAT THROUGH TUE AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
340-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ338-345.
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS
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