344  
FXUS61 KOKX 210313  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1013 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
AS INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA  
TONIGHT, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS. STRONG  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL THEN MOVE EAST TO THE  
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY, AND REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO  
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.  
ANOTHER LOW MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/  
 
SNOW SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY COMING TO AN END. HOWEVER, THERE OF  
AREAS OF ENHANCEMENT OVER PORTIONS OF NYC AND LONG ISLAND AS OF  
10 PM. LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW WILL FALL AS THE SHOWERS  
HEAD SOUTH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR THEREAFTER.  
 
AS AN UPPER LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD FROM  
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NYC, NE NJ, WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND THE  
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY LIKELY POP FOR  
THOSE AREAS, AND ALSO HAVE CHANCE POP INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN CT  
MAINLY OVER FAIRFIELD COUNTY AND TOWARD THE COAST. QPF REMAINS  
LIGHT, LESS THAN 1/10 INCH IN GENERAL, AND CORRESPONDING  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN FROM A COATING TO AROUND  
A HALF INCH. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 1 INCH TOTAL IN THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH/WEST OF NYC AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN  
LONG ISLAND WHERE FORCING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE  
STRONGER. SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS AND SLICK SPOTS ARE  
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. STILL, SOME LOCALES MAY NOT SEE ANY SNOW  
WHATSOEVER, OR JUST A FEW FLURRIES, LARGELY STAYING MAINLY DRY  
AND OVERCAST INSTEAD, ESPECIALLY INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT.  
 
CLOUDS THIN OUT REGARDLESS OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS  
OFFSHORE AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AS  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND THE  
STRONG INLAND HIGH, WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE DECOUPLING. LOW TEMPS  
RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS INLAND, TO EITHER SIDE OF 20 IN NYC AND  
ALONG THE COAST, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST  
PLACES, AND AS LOW AS 0 IN SPOTS WELL INLAND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, BLUSTERY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRI  
INTO FRI NIGHT BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE WEST  
AT IT BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND  
AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 40 MPH IN THE NYC METRO AREA EXPECTED  
FRI AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S BY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
FLOW RELAXES INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER, AND  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS  
AND LOWER 20S.  
 
WINDS RELAX BY DAYTIME SAT AND BACK WSW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE  
HIGH REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY  
EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS 35-40.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.  
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK, WITH MID TO UPPER 40S POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH 50 DEGREES IN METRO NE  
NJ AND NYC.  
 
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
* A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THE SECOND HALF  
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A NW FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. THE  
ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST EARLY  
NEXT WEEK AS A FEW SHORTWAVES PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND  
NORTHEAST. THESE APPEAR MOISTURE STARVED AND MAY ONLY BRING AN  
INCREASE IN CLOUDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS POPS  
REMAIN AT SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN  
THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND WEAK LIFT.  
 
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE THE FOLLOWS ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE  
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRIEFLY BRING A RETURN TO HIGH  
PRESSURE. A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MAY FOLLOW LATE NEXT  
WEEK. THE MODELING IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE  
PATTERN, BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRACK OF AN  
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO  
BRING A CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. DETAILS  
ON ITS TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS ARE  
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN THIS IS A WEEK OUT. FOLLOWED THE  
NBM/MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS LEANING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION  
YIELDING MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN. WILL FOLLOW THE NBM, BUT CAP PRECIP  
PROBABILITIES OFF AT CHANCE FOR NOW SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT AND  
THE TIMING COULD EASILY CHANGE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST CYCLES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA  
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY.  
 
VFR WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.  
TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDED FOR THE LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS  
ESPECIALLY FOR CITY TERMINALS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO  
END AROUND 04Z. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.  
 
NW FLOW 10-15 KT, GUSTING TO 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT  
MAY BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE  
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT AND  
ISOLATED GUSTS OF 30-35 KT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF SNOW AND LOWERING CONDITIONS  
THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GUSTS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
MAY EXCEED 30 KT.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
 
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G25 KT.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT  
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SCA COND ABOUT TO BEGIN ON NY HARBOR AND THE WESTERN OCEAN  
WATERS SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL WATERS THIS EVENING AN CONTINUE ON  
ALL WATERS THROUGH DAYTIME FRI. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT MAY BE  
POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS LATE THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT AS OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT.  
 
WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH FRI NIGHT, FIRST BY EVENING ON THE WESTERN  
SOUND, THEN ON NY HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS BY MIDNIGHT  
FRI NIGHT.  
 
OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING 5-FOOTERS ON THE OUTER ERN  
OCEAN WATERS EARLY SAT AM, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW  
SCA LEVELS FROM SAT THROUGH TUE AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT  
SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-  
340-350-353-355.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ335.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR  
ANZ338-345.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS  
NEAR TERM...BG/DS  
SHORT TERM...BG  
LONG TERM...DS  
AVIATION...JP  
MARINE...BG/DS  
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS  
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