617
FXUS61 KOKX 211123
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
623 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH A LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS
FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW IMPACTS THE AREA THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
LOW PRESSURE EXITS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH
ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS US FROM THE
INTERIOR.
A FEW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING, BUT QUICKLY
CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN LEADING TO A MAINLY SUNNY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LEAVE US UNDER GUSTY NW FLOW UNTIL THE WINDS GRADUALLY LESSEN
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN. PEAK GUSTS THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 30 TO
35 MPH. SHOULD LOSE ALL GUSTS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER-20S TO
AROUND FREEZING. MAXIMUM WIND CHILLS REACH THE TEENS TO LOW-20S THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR
20. GIVEN SOME BREEZY WEATHER MAY REMAIN, AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
NIGHT, MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK, MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVES ALOFT ARE HINTED AT IN SOME GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND,
BUT WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS TURN
SW. HIGHS SATURDAY REACH THE MID/UPPER-30S. HIGHS SUNDAY REACH THE
UPPER-30S TO MID-40S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID-20S IN THE INTERIOR AND THE LI PINE
BARRENS TO AROUND 32 IN THE NYC METRO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S, AND GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 50S IN METRO NE NJ AND NYC.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
* A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED WITH A VORT MAX, PASSES MAINLY TO THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH AND VORT MAX FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING,
STRENGTH, AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SYSTEMS HAVE MAINTAINED
GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTERACTION OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST, AND THE TRACK THAT
THIS LOW AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL TAKE. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, AND THEN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, AND REMAINS
IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NW FLOW 15-20 KT, GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH TODAY, WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 30-35 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. NW FLOW
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISHING, AND GUSTS
ENDING 04Z TO 06Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-35 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY - SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE OF MVFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA IS IN PLACE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NW
WINDS HAVE PEAK GUSTS OF 30 KTS FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. WINDS
DROP BELLOW SCA CRITERIA WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WAVES WILL ALSO REACH 5-6 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTLES OVER THE
WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ332-350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
338-340-345.
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page