733
FXUS61 KOKX 211809
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
109 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT PASSES NEARBY TO
THE NORTH DURING MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
HERE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH THE MINOR UPDATES MADE
EARLIER TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE EXITS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH
ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS US FROM THE
INTERIOR.
A FEW CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING, BUT QUICKLY
CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN LEADING TO A MAINLY SUNNY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY, AND AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAVE US UNDER GUSTY NW FLOW UNTIL
THE WINDS GRADUALLY LESSEN TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. PEAK GUSTS THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH. SHOULD LOSE ALL
GUSTS BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND FREEZING. MAXIMUM WIND CHILLS REACH THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP INTO THE TEENS TO
NEAR 20. GIVEN SOME BREEZY WEATHER MAY REMAIN, AT LEAST EARLY
IN THE NIGHT, MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK, MOISTURE-
STARVED SHORTWAVES ALOFT ARE HINTED AT IN SOME GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND,
BUT WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AS WINDS TURN
SW. HIGHS SATURDAY REACH THE MID/UPPER-30S. HIGHS SUNDAY REACH THE
UPPER-30S TO MID-40S. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID-20S IN THE INTERIOR AND THE LI PINE
BARRENS TO AROUND 32 IN THE NYC METRO.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S, AND GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE
LOWER 50S IN METRO NE NJ AND NYC.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
* A MORE ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED WITH A VORT MAX, PASSES MAINLY TO THE NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH AND VORT MAX FOR TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING,
STRENGTH, AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SYSTEMS HAVE MAINTAINED
GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH APPROACHES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTERACTION OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST, AND THE TRACK THAT
THIS LOW AND A NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL TAKE. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY RAIN WITH WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, AND THEN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SOME LIGHT SNOW AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, AND REMAINS
IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NW FLOW 15-20 KT, GUSTING TO 25-30 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 30-35 KT POSSIBLE. NW FLOW CONTINUES
TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISHING, AND GUSTS ENDING 04Z
TO 06Z.
WINDS BECOMING W-SW ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-35 KT
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
18Z SATURDAY - SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCE OF MVFR MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
STILL A GUST OR TWO TO 35KT POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THEY'LL DIMINISH SOON, HAVE OPTED TO
NOT ISSUE A SHORT-FUSED GALE WARNING.
SCA IS OTHERWISE IN PLACE UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTLES OVER
THE WATERS
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ332-350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
338-340-345.
SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JC/BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET
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