686
FXUS61 KOKX 240825
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
425 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DEVELOPING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY, PASSING
TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE
NORTH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THE MRNG FCST IS TO REDUCE WINTRY PCPN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RISING WITH THE THICKENING OF CLOUDS
AND WAA. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, SO
THERE IS SOME ROOM FOR TEMPS TO DROP A FEW DEGREES WITH THE PCPN
THIS MRNG. HOWEVER, RADAR INDICATES THE BULK OF THE PCPN ON A
TRAJECTORY TO IMPACT SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MRNG. BY THE
TIME THE STEADIER PCPN GETS HERE AFT AROUND 12Z, IT SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.
JET STREAK COMES THRU TODAY AND ENHANCES LIFT. TIMEHEIGHTS SHOW
DEEP LIFT TO AROUND H25. THERE IS ALSO A LITTLE ELEVATED
MUCAPE, ALBEIT BLW 100 J/KG PER THE NAM. COULD GET AN ISOLD TSTM
WITH THIS SETUP. WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE 10 PERCENT OR
LESS, AND CONFIDENCE LOW, HAVE KEPT TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST ATTM.
WOULD PREFER TO SEE MUCAPE AOA 100 TO INCLUDE.
STRONGEST WINDS TODAY AT THE S COAST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW MODELED TO BE OVER THE SOUND OR SRN CT. DESPITE
THE INVERSION, IF THERE IS ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION, COULD SEE SOME
HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 40KT ON THE WATERS OR ON LI. THERE IS 50KT AT
AROUND 1500FT TO WORK WITH PER THE NAM.
THE PCPN TAPERS OFF QUICKLY THIS EVE WITH THE HREF POPS USED. THE
RAIN SHOULD END MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNSET, THEN PARTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING.
MAX/MIN TEMPS TODAY AND TNGT THE NBM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEP MIXING ON WLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 50S FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA TUE. THIS IS DESPITE H85 AT AROUND -2C. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS FOR TUE NGT AND WED.
AS AN H5 TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST, LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE DELMARVA AND TRACKS NEWD OVER THE OCEAN. THERE IS A
CLUSTERING OF THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF NEAR OR SE OF THE BENCHMARK.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP TUE NGT INTO WED, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH THE SYS. RIGHT NOW
POPS ARE IN THE CHC CATEGORY. DID GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW WORDING
DESPITE LOWS IN THE UPR 30S AT THE COASTS. THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT
TOO WARM THIS FAR OUT BASED ON THE 00Z CONSENSUS TRACK. THE NBM IS
CURIOUS PLACING THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NWRN ZONES, WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HAVING NEARLY ZERO, AND IN SOME CASES ZERO, QPF. THIS
IS A SIGNAL THAT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE STILL.
ANY PCPN WITH THE OCEAN LOW EXITS WED AFTN PER THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
TIMING. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL PERIODS OUT SO THIS COULD CHANGE. WENT
WITH THE NBM FOR HIGH TEMPS WED, ALTHOUGH IF THE GFS VERIFIES, TEMPS
ALOFT AREA A BIT TOO COLD TO PRODUCE THE NBM NUMBERS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S MORE REALISTIC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, MINUS A SPRINKLE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGHS WILL START OFF CLOSE TO
NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO GET WELL INTO THE 50S IN
A MILD SW FLOW. HOWEVER, LIKE 24H AGO, DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. THE LATTER OF WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY
RAIN, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT, SENDING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
NBM BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOW 10 TO 20
DEGREE SPREADS BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES, MOST NOTABLE
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM THE 40S TO LOWER 70S DURING THIS TIME. THERE
IS ALSO QUITE A VARIANCE BETWEEN THE NBM DETERMINISTIC (COOLER) AND
ITS MEDIAN DURING THIS TIME. THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL 2M TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY COLDER DURING THIS TIME. BOTTOM LINE, THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR
FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 00Z GLOBALS DID
SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE POSITIONING. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS
CARRIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES. FOR THE MOMENT, TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME REFLECT THE NBM DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE MORNING AS RAIN DEVELOPS
FIRST WITH MVFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO IFR. IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS LONGER FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY AT KGON WHICH MAY
NOT GO SUB-VFR UNTIL THE 13Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW-
LEVEL DRY IN PLACE INITIALLY SO AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING ARE EXPECTED.
FOR KSWF, A WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET SHOULD GO OVER TO ALL RAIN IN
THE 10Z-12Z TIMEFRAME. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND
PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
S/SE WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY NEAR 5-10 KT, INCREASING TO 10-15 KT
ALONG COAST, WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE FARTHER INLAND. GUSTS NEAR COAST
NEAR 20 KT, WITH A BRIEF WINDOW WERE GUSTS CAN REACH UP TO 30 KT
AFTER 12Z. GUSTS WILL LIKELY LOWER LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
AS A LOW-INVERSION STRENGTHENS AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR FROM 12-20Z, WITH 40-50
KT SW WINDS AT 2KFT JUST FOR SOME COASTAL TERMINALS, KJFK, KLGA,
KISP AND KGON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF CATEGORICAL CHANGES COULD VARY BY 1-2 HOURS. CHANCE OF
LIFR CIGS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
BRIEF WINDOW WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KT IN THE MORNING(11Z-14Z).
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. W WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY: POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX EARLY WITH MVFR TO IFR. PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS TO MAINLY RAIN WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE BEFORE TAPERING
OFF IN AFTERNOON. VFR RETURNS AT NIGHT. AFTERNOON NW WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA FOR ALL AREAS TODAY, ENDING FROM W TO E AS LOW PRES TRACKS
NEAR THE SOUND. OCNL GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN AND LI
BAYS. WINDS DECREASE BLW 25KT ALL WATERS TNGT, BUT SEAS ON THE
OCEAN STAY AOA 5 FT. WINDS MRGNL ON TUE, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT SCA LVLS FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN THRU THE DAY. WINDS
LIKELY BLW SCA LVLS THRU WED, BUT SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO
THRESHOLDS ON THE OCEAN.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THEN AN INCREASING W/SW FLOW COULD BRING SEAS
ON THE OCEAN CLOSE TO 5 FT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
THE FLOW WEAKENS FRIDAY EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ335-338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
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