098
FXUS61 KOKX 241755
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY, PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO THE NORTH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A WARM
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.
RAIN, MODERATE AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY FROM THE NYC
METRO ON NORTH AND EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN HAS BEEN
LESS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR WITH THE BETTER LIFT
RESIDING TO THE EAST FURTHER NW ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THE RAIN
HAS BEEN LESS WIDESPREAD WITH THE BETTER LIFT RESIDING TO THE
EAST. A FEW TENTHS NW TO AROUND THREE QUARTERS OUT EAST
EXPECTED. RAIN QUICKLY TAPERS OFF OUT EAST THIS EVENING
WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY
LINGER.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET SLIDES AWAY FROM AREA. GUSTS 25-30 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.
STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 50S IN NYC AND NE NJ WITH
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE. THESE READINGS MOST LIKELY WILL
OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEP MIXING ON WLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE 50S FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA TUE. THIS IS DESPITE H85 AT AROUND -2C. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS FOR TUE NGT AND WED.
AS AN H5 TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST, LOW PRES DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE DELMARVA AND TRACKS NEWD OVER THE OCEAN. THERE IS A
CLUSTERING OF THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF NEAR OR SE OF THE BENCHMARK.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PCPN TO DEVELOP TUE NGT INTO WED, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW WITH DECREASING THICKNESSES. THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR WITH THE SYS. RIGHT NOW
POPS ARE IN THE CHC CATEGORY. DID GO WITH RAIN OR SNOW WORDING
DESPITE LOWS IN THE UPR 30S AT THE COASTS. THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT
TOO WARM THIS FAR OUT BASED ON THE 00Z CONSENSUS TRACK. THE NBM IS
CURIOUS PLACING THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE NWRN ZONES, WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME HAVING NEARLY ZERO, AND IN SOME CASES ZERO, QPF. THIS
IS A SIGNAL THAT THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE STILL.
ANY PCPN WITH THE OCEAN LOW EXITS WED AFTN PER THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
TIMING. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL PERIODS OUT SO THIS COULD CHANGE. WENT
WITH THE NBM FOR HIGH TEMPS WED, ALTHOUGH IF THE GFS VERIFIES, TEMPS
ALOFT ARE A BIT TOO COLD TO PRODUCE THE NBM NUMBERS, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S MORE REALISTIC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, MINUS A SPRINKLE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGHS WILL START OFF CLOSE TO
NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND THEN ARE FORECAST TO GET WELL INTO THE 50S IN
A MILD SW FLOW. HOWEVER, LIKE 24H AGO, DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. THE LATTER OF WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY
RAIN, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BRIEFLY BUILDS TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT, SENDING A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
NBM BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOW 10 TO 20
DEGREE SPREADS BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES, MOST NOTABLE
FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS ACROSS
THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM THE 40S TO LOWER 70S DURING THIS TIME. THERE
IS ALSO QUITE A VARIANCE BETWEEN THE NBM DETERMINISTIC (COOLER) AND
ITS MEDIAN DURING THIS TIME. THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL 2M TEMPS ARE
GENERALLY COLDER DURING THIS TIME. BOTTOM LINE, THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR
FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE 00Z GLOBALS DID
SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE POSITIONING. WE WILL SEE HOW THIS
CARRIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES. FOR THE MOMENT, TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS TIME REFLECT THE NBM DETERMINISTIC FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING TRACKS ALONG THE COAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW REMAINS TO THE
NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR, WITH LOCAL LIFR WITH MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN. PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
NEW YORK CITY TERMINALS. KSWF, MAY NOT HAVE MUCH RAIN AND ONLY
MENTIONED IN A TEMPO THROUGH 20Z. RAIN ENDS LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN VFR
EARLY THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENTS MAY BE AN HOUR OR SO LATER, AND
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS THROUGH
THE REGION.
S/SE WIND GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS BECOME SW BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND THEN WESTERLY THIS EVENING. WEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT DEVELOPING 13Z TO
14Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE ENDING AT KGON AROUND
19Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF CATEGORICAL CHANGES MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS. LOW CHANCE
OF LIFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON - NIGHT: VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY W
WIND AROUND 25 KT. CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR AT NIGHT, WITH RAIN
ALONG THE COAST AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND.
WEDNESDAY: RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR. VFR RETURNS IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON W/NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. E WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE SCA REMAINS FOR ALL BUT THE NY HARBOR AND WESTERN SOUND.
GUSTS 25-30 KT SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EVENING, BUT OCEAN SEAS STAY
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT. WINDS MARGINAL ON TUE, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY
STAY AT SCA LVLS FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
LIKELY BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU WED, BUT SEAS WILL BE CLOSE TO
THRESHOLDS ON THE OCEAN.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THEN AN INCREASING W/SW FLOW COULD BRING SEAS
ON THE OCEAN CLOSE TO 5 FT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
THE FLOW WEAKENS FRIDAY EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
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