497
FXUS61 KOKX 242142
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
542 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
TROUGH LINGERS NEARBY ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW
PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY, PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO THE NORTH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
NEARBY BUT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER
NORTH THAN LONG ISLAND. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL EXIT EAST OF MONTAUK EARLY THIS EVENING WITH AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE TWIN FORKS
AND SE CT. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE PUSHED AWAY FROM
THE AREA, SO WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THIS EVENING.
DEEP MOISTURE AND THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO PUSH EAST THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES,
SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S INLAND AND STAY CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES NEAR
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH KEEPING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
REGION FOR LITTLE TO NO PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SPIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH. A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL PROMOTE A BREEZY TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL OF SW GUSTS 20-25
MPH, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP MIXING
AND SW FLOW ALONG WITH LATE MARCH SUN UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 50S. SOME OF THE
USUAL WARM SPOTS COULD TOUCH 60 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EVENING AS THE NEXT 500 MB
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. THE ASSOCIATED VORT
ENERGY PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND INTERACTS WITH THE LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO DEVELOP A LOW
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES WERE DIFFERING IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE ENERGY ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW AND ANY ASSOCIATED LIFT AND
PRECIP REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NBM POPS APPEAR TO BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE
LATEST TRENDS AND HAVE GONE MUCH LOWER FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE
SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND WHILE THERE IS SOME AMPLIFICATION
ALOFT, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TIME TO HAVE THIS LOW
DEVELOP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP. HAVE TRENDED POPS MUCH LOWER, BUT STILL WILL
SHOW PRECIP PROBABILITIES AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT. THERMAL
PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A WET SNOW/COLD RAIN MIX INLAND AND COLD
RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST IF PRECIP WERE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, AS
NOTED THIS IS BECOMING A MUCH LOWER CHANCE AND IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS DRY.
THE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUING ALOFT. WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT CLEARING SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
W WINDS COULD ALSO BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL OF GUSTS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE EAST OF US BY THURSDAY
MORNING. A CYCLONIC FLOW HOWEVER REMAINS ALOFT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD, SO EXPECTING
DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT PROVIDES SOME LIFT FOR PERHAPS A STRAY SPRINKLE
OR FLURRY. HIGHS MOSTLY 50-55 ON THURSDAY, THEN 55-60 FOR
FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH WITH MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, MOST LIKELY DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONT, MAKING THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP CHANCE FORECASTS RELATIVELY LOWER IN
CONFIDENCE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS NOT TO FAR TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME HELP FROM A LOW LEVEL JET AS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD
FRONT WOULD THEN FOLLOW DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT WHEN A
SHORTWAVE HELPS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED.
WENT WITH 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AS OVERRUNNING REMAINS A CONSTANT THREAT. CHANCES THEN INCREASE
TO 50% SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, ACCOUNTING FOR BOTH
WARM AND COLD FRONT PASSAGES AS THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM DRAWS NEARER.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, NBM BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW 10 TO 20 DEGREE SPREADS BETWEEN
THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES, MOST NOTABLY FOR THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WILL GO WITH THE SCENARIO
THAT THE STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHICH ALIGNS WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS THE
PARENT LOW CENTER OF THE UPCOMING STORM IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR
WEST AND FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH THIS TIME. THIS PUTS US ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
GOES ALONG THE LINES OF THE DETERMINISTIC NBM FORECAST WHICH IS
COOLER THAN ITS ENSEMBLE MEDIAN AND CLOSER TO THE 25TH
PERCENTILE. THEN WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THE WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA, WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY VERSUS THE
WEEKEND, BUT THEY COULD BE TEMPERED BY POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL. DETERMINISTIC AND MEDIAN NBM ARE AT LEAST IN
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TERMINALS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
THIS EVENING TRACKS ALONG THE COAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH THROUGH
TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS REMAIN IFR TO LIFR WITH LIGHT RAIN, AND PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD WAS
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEW JERSEY AT 19Z, AND THE RAIN WILL BE
GRADUALLY ENDING WEST TO EAST FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 01Z, AND MAY BE
AN HOUR OR SO LATER. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH CONDITIONS THEN BECOMING
VFR EARLY TO LATE THIS EVENING. IMPROVEMENTS MAY BE AN HOUR OR
SO LATER, AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.
S WIND GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS BECOMES SW, THEN W BY THIS EVENING.
WEST FLOW THEN CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KT DEVELOPING 13Z TO 14Z TUESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF CATEGORICAL CHANGES MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON - NIGHT: VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY W
WIND AROUND 25 KT. CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR AT NIGHT, WITH RAIN ALONG
THE COAST AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND.
WEDNESDAY: RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR. VFR RETURNS IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON W/NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. E WIND GUSTS 15-
20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FT. THE ELEVATED SEAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA INTO THE MORNING WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
INTO TUESDAY EVENING TO MORICHES INLET. EAST OF MORICHES THE SCA
WILL NOW RUN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL
OTHERWISE REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE ARE HOWEVER A FEW PERIODS UP THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN GUSTS COULD BE NEAR 25KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A LITTLE.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS/JC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page