476
FXUS61 KOKX 260809
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
409 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, PASSING TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL TRANSLATE EAST DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL
KICK WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A LOW CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AND/OR
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME. WET BULB TEMPS IN THE
30S COULD EVEN ALLOW FOR A FEW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC METRO AND POSSIBLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST TONIGHT IF ANY PRECIPITATION STILL LINGERS.
REGARDLESS, EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT. W WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS ON TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT,
BUT LESS FREQUENT, AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW IN WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR THURSDAY, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY WITH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE OFFSHORE WITH WARM
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE, A WEAK WARM FRONT AND/OR TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT IT DRY AT THIS TIME
BUT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SPRINKLE AND/OR BRIEF
SHOWER POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION
IN FORECAST PRODUCTS.
FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
IN A W/SW FLOW. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ANY SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER WITH
WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
POPS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST 00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE NOW HAS
THE FRONT LIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH, THAT THE LOCAL AREA REMAIN DRY
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, WITH THE AREA IN WARM SECTOR,
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
60S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COASTAL
LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON 1-
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT REMAINS AND 2- THE TIMING OF EACH WAVE
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL, WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END
CHANCE TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTY. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, THE ENTIRE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANY SUBSEQUENT WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PROGRESS OFF THE COAST WITH A DRIER NNW FLOW
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
COULD LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WITH A COLDER NW FLOW IN PLACE,
SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION END AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS.
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE QUESTIONS AROUND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONING, AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TIMING INCONSISTENCIES.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING,
EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A CHANCE OF SHRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
WILL INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHRA. THE MAIN TIMING
FOR ANY PRECIP WILL BE 18Z-21Z FOR THE NYC TERMINALS, SLIGHTLY LATER
FURTHER EAST. W TO SW FLOW AT OR AROUND 10 KT BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE
N TO NW FLOW AROUND 10KT OR LESS. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE WIND SPEEDS
OVER 10KT, BUT SHOULD BE DECREASING OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY THIS MORNING. INITIALLY THIS
MORNING SPEEDS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 KT, BUT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF AROUND 20-25KT ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM ABOUT 18-00Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR GUSTS WILL
BE FROM NYC AND POINTS WEST, HOWEVER WILL INCLUDE GUSTS AT ALL TAF
SITES. MOST GUSTS END AROUND 00Z THURSDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THAN FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR DURING THE DAY, MVFR POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. E TO SE WIND
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN. E TO SE WIND GUSTS 15
TO 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WHILE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN IN A NW FLOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN A WESTERLY FLOW.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN HOVERING AROUND 5FT. WINDS GUSTS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY WEST WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS, LOW FUEL
MOISTURE, AND LOWERING MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO THURSDAY RAISES
SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED WILDFIRE SHOULD ANY FIRE BE IGNITED.
LAND MANAGERS WILL BE CONTACTED TO COLLABORATE ON ANY NEED
HEADLINES.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
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