906
FXUS61 KOKX 261758
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, PASSING TO THE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE
WEST AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
KICKS LOW PRESSURE FURTHER OUT TO SEA WITH SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO
LATE DAY AND MAY HELP INSTIGATE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. WET BULB TEMPS IN THE 30S COULD EVEN ALLOW FOR
A FEW FLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC. REGARDLESS, EXPECT NO MORE THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
WESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT AS STRONG
AS ON TUESDAY. GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT, BUT LESS
FREQUENT, AS WINDS VEER TO THE NW IN WEAK COLD ADVECTION.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOR THURSDAY, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY WITH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE OFFSHORE WITH WARM
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE, A WEAK WARM FRONT AND/OR TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT IT DRY AT THIS TIME
BUT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SPRINKLE AND/OR BRIEF
SHOWER POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION
IN FORECAST PRODUCTS.
FRIDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
IN A W/SW FLOW. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ANY SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER WITH
WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN OVER OR
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
POPS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST 00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE NOW HAS
THE FRONT LIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH, THAT THE LOCAL AREA REMAIN DRY
FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, WITH THE AREA IN WARM SECTOR,
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
60S TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COASTAL
LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
TRAVEL ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON 1-
HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT REMAINS AND 2- THE TIMING OF EACH WAVE
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVERALL, WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END
CHANCE TO COVER THE UNCERTAINTY. BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, THE ENTIRE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANY SUBSEQUENT WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PROGRESS OFF THE COAST WITH A DRIER NNW FLOW
BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
COULD LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WITH A COLDER NW FLOW IN PLACE,
SOME NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION END AS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS.
OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE QUESTIONS AROUND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITIONING, AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TIMING INCONSISTENCIES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
VFR. SCATTERED -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY NOT CAUSING ANY
MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS VARY MOSTLY WNW TO WSW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING MORE NW THIS EVENING. GUSTS 20-25KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ENDING BY 00Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST
BEFORE 19Z. GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN FREQUENT THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY PM: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR DURING THE DAY, MVFR POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SW WIND
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN. E TO SE WIND GUSTS 15
TO 20 KT.
MONDAY: MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SW WIND GUSTS 20-25.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WHILE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY, THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN IN A NW FLOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN A WESTERLY FLOW.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH SEAS ON THE OCEAN HOVERING AROUND 5FT. WINDS GUSTS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK
AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE MAY KEEP SEAS ELEVATED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY WEST WINDS THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS, LOW FUEL
MOISTURE, AND LOWERING MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO THURSDAY RAISES
SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED WILDFIRE SHOULD ANY FIRE BE IGNITED.
LAND MANAGERS WILL BE CONTACTED TO COLLABORATE ON ANY NEED
HEADLINES.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BC/DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC/JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
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