478   
FXUS61 KOKX 270002  
AFDOKX  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
802 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN  
PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES TO  
THE NORTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS ON  
FRIDAY BEFORE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT   
WILL LIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY, DROP BACK SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT   
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND LIFT BACK NORTH ON MONDAY.   
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT.   
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. A  
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA NEXT   
WEDNESDAY.  
  
  
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/  
  
STILL SEEING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS MAINLY  
INLAND/OUT EAST AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT   
PIVOT ACROSS. HIGHER RETURNS OF 35+ DBZ ON RADAR LIKELY   
INDICATIVE OF GRAUPEL OR VERY SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE   
ACTIVITY EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND. CONDS DRY OUT  
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AND COLD POOL SHIFT EAST.   
  
DEEP MIXING AND A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER HAVE ALLOWED OCCASIONAL   
GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH, AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT IN THE  
NYC METRO AREA AND ALONG THE COAST WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND  
SKIES CLEARING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE  
LOWER/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST, AND MID/UPPER 20S INLAND. WITH  
THESE VALUES, IT COULD BE ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS FOR THE   
NEXT WEEK, IF NOT LONGER.  
  
  
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
  
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE THURSDAY, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST. RISING HEIGHTS   
AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL HELP MAINTAIN NOT JUST DRY CONDITIONS   
THRU THE DAY, BUT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE MUCH OF THIS TIME AS WELL.  
  
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE  
BUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT   
LOCALLY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. WHILE NOT   
PARTICULARLY STRONG, WEST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 25 MPH THRU LATE  
DAY. COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, RH VALUES BETWEEN   
20 AND 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED   
RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR   
ADDITIONAL DETAIL.  
  
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE FURTHER OUT TO SEA,  
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND SENDS A WEAK   
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THRU THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. ADDED   
MENTION FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY,   
BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LIMITED.  
  
  
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
  
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PAST THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER  
DAYBREAK FRI, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN ITS WAKE ON  
A W FLOW GUSTING TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.   
SW-S RETURN FLOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO   
FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY   
LOW CLOUDS, PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER INLAND, ALSO POSSIBLY SOME  
PATCHY FOG NEAR THE COAST AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO NEAR 50 IN   
SPOTS WHILE SST OFFSHORE REMAINS IN THE MID 40S. EXPECT THE   
FRONT TO LIFT WELL TO THE NORTH ON SAT, WITH A WARM DAY   
THROUGHOUT PER GFS/ECMWF MOS AND NBM 75TH PERCENTILE TEMPS WHICH  
HAVE WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL IN OTHER RECENT MILD SPELLS. TEMPS   
SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 70S ESPECIALLY FROM NYC NORTH/WEST, 80  
POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ. FARTHER EAST THE MARINE INFLUENCE   
SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS ERN LONG ISLAND   
AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT, AND THE 60S ALONG SOUTH FACING   
SHORELINES OUT EAST.  
  
SATURDAY'S WARMTH WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS NW FLOW ALOFT AND MID  
LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER ERN CANADA BRING HIGH PRESSURE SE INTO   
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND FORCE THE FRONT BACK SOUTH SAT NIGHT.   
NBM TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO MID 60S WEST MAY BE A FEW   
DEGREES TOO WARM FOR SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND A   
COOL E-SE FLOW ON THE SOUTH FLANK OF THE HIGH PASSING TO THE   
NORTH.   
  
AS THAT HIGH PASSES EAST, THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT CLOSER TO THE  
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT THROUGH MONDAY AM. A MOSTLY CLOUDY  
DAY IS FCST WHICH SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER  
60S EAST IN ONSHORE FLOW AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WEST, BUT ANY  
AFTERNOON PEEKS OF SUN COULD EASILY LEAD TO TEMPS SEVERAL DEG   
WARMER THAN THAT.   
  
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH MON NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPS FOR TUE-WED NEXT WEEK. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL   
SYSTEM ON WED COULD BRING A COLD RAIN, EVEN SOME WET SNOW MIXING  
IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PRECIP  
TYPE WITH THIS EVENT IS LOW.  
  
  
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.  
  
VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED -SHRA MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY THIS EVENING  
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH 02Z.  
IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES NOT EXPECTED. WNW WINDS EXPECTED   
TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ANY GUSTS OVER 20 KT ENDING BY 02Z.  
  
WNW WINDS PERSIST DAYTIME THU WITH PERHAPS GUSTS UPWARDS OF   
20 KT INTO THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND THEN SHIFTS   
MORE SW AND LESSENS INTO THE EVENING.  
  
 ...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...   
  
GUSTS TO 20-25KT MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THURSDAY LATE MORNING   
INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH   
THE TAF PERIOD.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
  
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.  
  
FRIDAY: VFR.  
  
SATURDAY: VFR DURING THE DAY, MVFR POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SW WINDS  
G20-25KT.   
  
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN. E-SE WIND  
G15-20KT.   
  
MONDAY: MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE. S-SW WINDS G20KT,  
BECOMING NW AT NIGHT.   
  
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT  
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
  
  
   
MARINE  
  
SEEING SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KT IN/AROUND NY HARBOR ATTM AS WINDS  
SHIFT NW. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25  
KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OUT EAST LATER TONIGHT. WITH SEAS REMAINING  
BELOW 5 FT OPTED NOT TO ISSUE SCA.  
  
MARGINAL SCA COND ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET  
FRI AM AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH W FLOW GUSTING TO 25   
KT AND SEAS REACHING 5 FT.   
  
PERSISTENT S FLOW 15-20 KT AFTER A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD   
HELP BUILD OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN FROM SAT INTO SAT   
NIGHT, LASTING INTO SUNDAY AM E OF MORICHES INLET. AFTER A LULL   
DAYTIME SUNDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH, THESE CONDITIONS  
MAY RETURN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT ONCE THE FRONT  
RETURNS NORTH. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS  
MON NIGHT IN NW FLOW AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
  
  
   
FIRE WEATHER  
  
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH, LOW FUEL MOISTURE, AND RH  
20-30% THU AFTERNOON WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE   
SPREAD SHOULD IGNITION OCCUR. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH   
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND STATE LAND MANAGERS, HOISTED AN SPS TO   
HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK FOR THE NY AND NJ ZONES.   
  
LOW RH 20-30% AGAIN POSSIBLE ON FRI, WITH W WINDS GUSTING 15-20  
MPH, MAINLY IN THE AM AND EARLY AFTERNOON.   
  
SAT MAY FEATURE LOW RH OF 30-35% AND W-SW WINDS GUSTING TO   
20-25 MPH ESPECIALLY FROM NYC NORTH/WEST.  
  
  
   
HYDROLOGY  
  
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
  
  
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR  
NEAR TERM...DR  
SHORT TERM...DR  
LONG TERM...BG  
AVIATION...MW  
MARINE...BG/DR  
FIRE WEATHER...  
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR  
 
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