593
FXUS61 KOKX 280241
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THAT STALLS NEARBY DURING FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY, MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
SCATTERED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH, AND CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT, LESS THAN 5 KT, AND THE CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP OFF LOWER THAN FORECAST TRENDS.
AND DEW POINTS WERE ALSO LOWER THAN FORECAST AS DRY AIR REMAINS
AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, AND WITH DRY LOW LEVELS, ANYTHING THAT
FALLS MIGHT BE JUST A SPRINKLE. THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TOO WARM
WITH FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT FLURRIES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
FOR FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH STALLS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT POSSIBLY JUST NORTH OF
US. THE FRONT THEN NUDGES NORTHWARD STARTING LATE IN THE DAY OR
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE STREAMS
EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. SOME OF
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY FOR PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT A BETTER OVERALL CHANCE HAPPENS DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS AROUND 50
IN THE CITY WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UNSETTLED TO START THE PERIOD AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
LINGERS NEARBY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH
INCREASING SW FLOW QUICKLY ADVECTING IN AN ANOMALOUSLY MILD AIR
MASS AND SETTING UP THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S GENERALLY FROM NYC NORTH AND
WEST, WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW LOWER 80S IN URBAN NE NJ. MARINE
INFLUENCE SHOULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S MOVING EAST
INTO LONG ISLAND AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT, AND THE 60S ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORELINES OUT EAST. THE WARMTH IS SHORT-LIVED AS
NW FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER EASTERN CANADA BRING
HIGH PRESSURE SE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HELPS FORCE THE
FRONT BACK SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THAT HIGH PASSES WELL EAST, THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH AS
LOW PRESSURE CUTS TRACKS THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND LIFTS
NORTH BY MONDAY AM. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES MONDAY,
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TO THE EAST AND MID
60S TO LOWER 70S TO THE WEST. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FROPA, AND AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON. THEREAFTER,
COOLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TUE AND
WED WITH COLD NW FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST REMAINS
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
FRONT THEN STALLS IN THE VICINITY DURING FRIDAY AND MOVES BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
VFR. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST, TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
AND WILL SHIFT BACK TO W TOWARD MORNING, AND INCREASE AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE W FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO SW AROUND MIDDAY, AND THEN S LATE IN
THE DAY.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR REGARDLESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: VFR THROUGH THE MORNING, MVFR POSSIBLE STARTING IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SW WINDS G25-30KT.
SUNDAY: VFR, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AT NIGHT. E-SE WIND G15-20KT.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS, SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON. S-SW WINDS G25-30KT, BECOMING NW AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. N/NW WIND G25KT DURING THE DAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO DROP THE SCA FOR
THE NON-OCEAN WATERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD,
BUT THERE MAY BE ONLY LOW COVERAGE WHERE CRITERIA IS MET. ON THE
OCEAN, 5FT SEAS WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET, BUT MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ANTICIPATED WEST OF HERE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SO NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES ON THE
OCEAN. SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS, IF NOT ALL WATERS, SATURDAY
WITH WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS BUILD ABOVE 5 FT
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL, AND COULD LINGER THRU
SUNDAY AM, ESPECIALLY EAST OF MORICHES INLET. WINDS LOWER
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND AFTER A LULL DAYTIME SUNDAY, SCA CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH,
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS. GALES POSSIBLE
MONDAY ON THE OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO LOWER
BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST ACROSS
THE CT ZONES AT 30-35%. WINDS WILL HOWEVER BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE BY THE TIME THE RH DROPS THIS LOW IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH
MAYBE A GUST OR TWO UP TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RANGE MOSTLY 35-45% WITH GUSTS BELOW
20 MPH. NO STATEMENTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC/DR/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
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