370
FXUS61 KOKX 280643
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
243 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING FARTHER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FOR
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY WITHOUT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY, MOVING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL MAKE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE
MIXING IN BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT MOVES IN THIS MORNING. PERHAPS
INTO EARLY THIS MORNING A VERY LIGHT RAIN/VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE/FLURRY WITH OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING GOING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE TOTALLY THROUGH
THE REGION. SOME MORE BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH, WITH THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
LEADING TO A RELATIVELY WARMER DAY.
HOWEVER, BY THE LATTER HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GRADUALLY GAIN A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST USED THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
THAT WAS IN THE AREA EARLIER. THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AS A WARM FRONT.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
NON-DIURNAL TREND TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS LIKELY SET
EARLY WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. USED A
COMBINATION OF NBM/NBM 50TH PERCENTILE FOR LOWS FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE REGION GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY WITH WARM FRONT
NORTH OF THE REGION. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE
THE FRONT WILL NOT BE WITHIN THE REGION. INCREASED LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURE RISING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES C WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR.
MAV GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
MARITIME INFLUENCE. EXPECT TO SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DUE TO MARITIME INFLUENCE, LOWEST FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CONNECTICUT, CLOSER TO 60, TO
HIGHEST FOR NORTHEAST NJ, LOWER 80S. MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
COVERS THE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
UNSETTLED TO START THE PERIOD AS A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
LINGERS NEARBY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE WARMTH IS SHORT-LIVED AS NW FLOW ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
CONFLUENCE OVER EASTERN CANADA BRING HIGH PRESSURE SE INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HELPS FORCE THE FRONT BACK SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THAT HIGH PASSES WELL EAST, THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK NORTH AS
LOW PRESSURE CUTS TRACKS THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND LIFTS
NORTH BY MONDAY AM. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES MONDAY,
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S TO THE EAST AND MID
60S TO LOWER 70S TO THE WEST. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FROPA, AND AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON. THEREAFTER,
COOLING BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TUE AND
WED WITH COLD NW FLOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COASTS WILL
REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT
WILL THEN STALL NEARBY TODAY AND MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
VFR. SW WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BACK W AFTER DAYBREAK AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KT AS AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. W FLOW SHOULD BACK TO
SW THIS AFTERNOON, AND MORE S LATE TODAY.
SPRINKLES FALLING OUT OF A BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/MVFR WITH
THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE TONIGHT: MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR THROUGH THE MORNING, MVFR POSSIBLE STARTING IN THE
EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS. SW WINDS G25-30KT.
SUNDAY: VFR, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AT NIGHT. E-SE WIND G15-20KT.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
S-SW WINDS G25-30KT, BECOMING NW AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. N-NW WIND G25KT DAYTIME.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA ONGOING ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND NON-OCEAN WATERS ARE
ABOUT TO START HEADING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND WILL BE BASED ON WIND
GUSTS PRIMARILY. THE FRONT WEAKENS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE THIS MORNING. SCAS END AT
10AM FOR MOST WATERS WITH OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET GOING
UNTIL 12PM.
EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS, IF NOT ALL WATERS, SATURDAY
WITH WINDS GUSTING TOWARD 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS BUILD ABOVE 5 FT
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL, AND COULD LINGER THRU
SUNDAY AM, ESPECIALLY EAST OF MORICHES INLET. WINDS LOWER
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND AFTER A LULL DAYTIME SUNDAY, SCA CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH,
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS. GALES POSSIBLE
MONDAY ON THE OCEAN. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO LOWER
BELOW SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
MINIMUM RH VALUES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWEST ACROSS THE CT
ZONES AT 25-30%. WINDS WILL HOWEVER BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE BY
THE TIME THE RH DROPS THIS LOW IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH MAYBE A
GUST OR TWO UP TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RANGE MOSTLY 30-45% WITH GUSTS BELOW 20 MPH.
NO STATEMENTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT
THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...BG/MET
MARINE...JC/JM/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
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