193
FXUS61 KOKX 281156
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
756 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING FARTHER OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE FRONT WEAKENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FOR
TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT BACK SOUTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY AND PASS EAST ON WEDNESDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO
BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WILL MAKE FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH MORE
MIXING IN BOUNDARY LAYER AS IT MOVES IN THIS MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING GOING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE TOTALLY THROUGH
THE REGION. SOME MORE BREAKS OF SUN ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH, WITH THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT
LEADING TO A RELATIVELY WARMER DAY.
HOWEVER, BY THE LATTER HALF OF THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND GRADUALLY GAIN A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST USED THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE. WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY, GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S
FOR THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MAIN FEATURE TONIGHT WILL BE THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
THAT WAS IN THE AREA EARLIER. THE FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AS A WARM FRONT.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
NON-DIURNAL TREND TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS LIKELY SET
EARLY WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. USED A
COMBINATION OF NBM/NBM 50TH PERCENTILE FOR LOWS FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE REGION GETS IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY WITH WARM FRONT
NORTH OF THE REGION. SE CONNECTICUT WILL NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY
FROM THE FRONT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE WITHIN THE REGION. INCREASED LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURE RISING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MODELS SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BE ABOUT 10
DEGREES C WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR. THESE HIGHER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES STAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HELPING ESTABLISH A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION.
MAV GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
MARITIME INFLUENCE. EXPECT TO SEE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY DUE TO MARITIME INFLUENCE, LOWEST FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CONNECTICUT, CLOSER TO 55 TO 60, TO
HIGHEST FOR NORTHEAST NJ, LOWER 80S. LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S
COVERS THE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY.
THE WARM FRONT DOES NOT MOVE TOO MUCH OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY FARTHER
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR MORE EASTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE MORE NORTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREA HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY FIT MOSTLY IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE. THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LOCATIONS FARTHEST NORTH WITHIN THE REGION WILL HAVE RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS WILL MEAN A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL FOR THIS
WEEKEND, COMPARING SE CONNECTICUT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NEW JERSEY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER RIDGING TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. AT THE SFC, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH EARLY MON, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MON NIGHT. MON SHOULD BE
ANOTHER MILD DAY THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AS SUNDAY AS FLOW WILL BE
SOUTHERLY OFF THE OCEAN, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S WEST OF
THE HUDSON AND IN THE 60S FROM NYC EAST. SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
MAINLY MON AFTERNOON/EVENING VIA COMBO OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN ITS ADVANCE VIA A LOW
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION.
THE FRONT SHOULD PASS EAST LATE MON NIGHT, WITH PRECIP COMING TO AN
END, THEN SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ON TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS PASSES EAST. TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL ON TUE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S, THEN COOL OFF FOR WED WITH HIGHS ONLY 45-50.
THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES WED NIGHT INTO THU.
PRECIP TYPE AT THE ONSET INLAND WED NIGHT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AS
TEMPS INLAND FALL TO THE MID 30S AND GFS HANGS ONTO SOME COLDER AIR
ALOFT THAT MIGHT LEAD TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX, WHILE ECMWF IS WARMER AND
POINTS MORE TOWARD ALL RAIN. RAIN EXPECTED FOR DAYTIME THU WITH
TEMPS WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST AS THE AREA GETS WARM SECTORED.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL NEARBY, THEN MOVE
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
VFR. WINDS ARE IN PROCESS OF VEERING WNW AROUND 10 KT FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE RESUMING A SW-WSW BEARING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME S 5-10 KT THE NYC METRO/COASTAL TONIGHT AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE AT SOME OF THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS EVENING AT THE NYC
METROS AS SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR. SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
AT KBDR/KGON. SW WINDS G20-25KT IN THE MORNING AND G25-30KT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MVFR CIGS EAST OF THE NYC METROS,
WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE THERE LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. E-SE WINDS G15-20KT DAYTIME SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. S-SW WINDS G20-25KT, BECOMING NW AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. N-NW WIND G20-25KT DAYTIME.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA ONGOING ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND MOST NON-OCEAN WATERS
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
IN AND WILL BE BASED ON WIND GUSTS PRIMARILY. THERE ARE SOME
NEAR SHORE WIND GUSTS NEAR SCA RANGE THIS MORNING SO FAR ACROSS
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WEAKENS GOING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE THIS MORNING.
SCAS END AT 10AM FOR MOST WATERS WITH OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET GOING UNTIL 12PM.
EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ON ALL
WATERS.
LOOKING AT THIS WEEKEND, SATURDAY COULD PRESENT SOME SCA
POTENTIAL, MAINLY DUE TO OCEAN SEAS THOUGH. WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO
BE LIMITED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THEY WILL
BE CLOSE. NON-OCEAN ZONES LIKELY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. THE
ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS WITH SCA LEVELS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OCEAN
ZONES.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA COND LIKELY ON THE OCEAN INTO TUE NIGHT
AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED, FIRST VIA LONG FETCH S FLOW UP TO 20 KT
ON MON, THEN IN NW FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT MON NIGHT INTO TUE AM
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY LINGERING SWELL. THE NON
OCEAN WATERS MAY ALSO SEE MINIMAL SCA COND LATE MON NIGHT IN POST-
FRONTAL NW FLOW BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN.
HYDROLOGY
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR SHOWERS FOR
THE WEEKEND THROUGH SUNDAY, MAINLY EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS.
RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT
SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND OR JUST OVER 1/2 INCH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
QPF OF 3/4 TO 1 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS WED NIGHT INTO THU BUT
THIS APPEARS LESS CERTAIN.
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
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