227
FXUS61 KOKX 121142
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
742 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN REMAINS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE AREA IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. A MID-LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NEAR THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AS IT DEEPENS SLIGHTLY. THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CAN
BE SEEN QUITE WELL ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT APPEARS
TO NOW BE TRACKING INTO WESTERN PA. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WEST THAN THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS. THE SURFACE LOW PER LATEST
RAP DATA LOOKS TO BE OFF THE DELAWARE COAST, SIMILAR TO WHERE
THE 06 WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE LOW CENTER. SOME
CIRCULATION BEING SEEN IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON THE NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE CHANNEL SUPPORTS THIS.
DEEP, STRONG LIFT FROM THESE FEATURES HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. STARTING AROUND 06Z,
SNOW WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS COLDER AIR IS BEING
PULLED IN IN THE N/NE FLOW. STEADY SNOW ENDED UP MAKING IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT, AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF NJ. RIGHT NOW, SNOW IS MAINLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW
TRACKING FARTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED MAY HAVE ALLOWED SOME DRIER
AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS LIKELY WHY CT HAS TURNED OVER TO ALL
RAIN, SO EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENT.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE AND
PUTNAM AS SOME BANDING HAS SET UP DUE TO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING, WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ.
THE BEST FORCING PASSES TO THE NORTH RIGHT AROUND 12Z. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING ANY MODERATE PRECIP TO AN END. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
LOOK TO DRY OUT A BIT BY THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE KEPT THE LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE MENTION. LOCKED IN UNDER CLOUD COVER AND A NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE MID TO LOW 40S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
THE LOW IS SLOW TO LEAVE AND WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLUMN SATURATES A BIT MORE TOWARDS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SOME STEADIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER, CLOSER TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA. WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE
EARLIER HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT, A 50% CHANCE OF WARM
ADVECTION RAINFALL. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF
TUESDAY WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, EVEN IF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE
RULED OUT DURING MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER, BUT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN UPPER RIDGING DOESN'T RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A SLOW RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MVFR AND LOWER CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH KSWF
SEEING -SN. ANY -SN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO -RASN OR PLAIN RAIN
BY 15Z. INTENSITY OF -RA LESSENS AFTER 16Z WITH -DZ POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. -RA MAY
REDEVELOPFOR EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH
TIMING OF ANY CHANGES IN THE MVFR/IFR CIGS IS VERY UNCERTAIN
WITH THE LOW NEARBY. GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR EXPECTED BY
12-15Z SUNDAY.
NNE TO N WINDS 10-20 KT WITH INCREASINGLY FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25-30
KT THIS MORNING, THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SOME GUSTS
TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH A N WIND AROUND
10-15KT PERSISTING.
ANY LLWS AT KISP, KBDR, OR KGON ENDS AFTER 14Z TODAY, WITH
WINDS AT 2K FT UP TO 50 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS BECOME MORE FREQUENT THIS MORNING PEAKING AT AROUND 30-35 KT.
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES VERY UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE NYC
TERMINALS.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS RAMP UP EARLY THIS MORNING AND PEAK AROUND 8 AM. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, EASTERN LI SOUND AND
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS WHERE 35 TO 40 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR 30 KT WIND
GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, OCEAN ZONES COULD SEE WAVES 7 TO 10 FT,
AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUND COULD SEE WAVES 5 TO 7 FT,
SPECIFICALLY CLOSER TO THE LI SHORE GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY ON THE OCEAN FOR LINGERING 5 FT
WAVES.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ON THE
OCEAN FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
TO 25KT ON THE OTHER WATERS AS WELL. THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ADDITIONAL QPF OF ABOUT 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ABOUT 0.25
TO 0.50 HAS ALREADY FALLEN. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS
RAINFALL, FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL LOW WILL COMBINE WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES TO
POTENTIALLY BRING A ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING TIDE CYCLES TODAY. THE FULL MOON TAKES PLACE
THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SFC
WINDS FOR THE 1ST HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING, WITH A GRADUALLY
INCREASING NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE EASTERLY FLOW DURING THIS
EVENING. THIS SHOULD MAKE TOTAL WATER LEVELS VERY SIMILAR FOR BOTH
HIGH TIDE CYCLES. HOWEVER, BLENDED GUIDANCE (STEVENS, ETSS) FOR MOST
TIDAL LOCATIONS IS LEANING TOWARDS A VERY SLIGHT HIGHER TOTAL WATER
LEVEL FOR THE EVENING HIGH TIDE AT MOST GAUGES. FOR SIMPLICITY
PURPOSES WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING / NIGHT CYCLES TODAY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
NASSAU AND SW SUFFOLK COUNTY, AND FOR STATEN ISLAND AND HUDSON,
ESSEX, AND UNION COUNTIES IN NE NJ AS WE GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO MINOR
BENCHMARKS TO AT LEAST WARRANT A STATEMENT. USED AN ETSS AND STEVENS
75TH PERCENTILE BLEND IN DERIVING THE TOTAL WATER LEVELS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ067-068.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
335-338-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ332-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC/JT
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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