590
FXUS61 KOKX 121451
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 AM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN REMAINS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THEREAFTER THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY HAS EXPIRED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE HIGHEST ACROSS ORANGE
COUNTY WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS REPORTING 2 TO 4
INCHES. THERE WERE EVEN REPORTS OF SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS IN
MONROE, LIKELY DUE TO THE FACT MUCH OF IT FEEL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING. IN
ADDITION, LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING NW
AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL GO OVER TO SOME LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
WITH THE MID LEVEL DRYING OUT (NO SNOW GROWTH).
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST
TODAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL LIFT AND DRY MID LEVELS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST TODAY. NE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT
GUSTS INITIALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST ALONG THE
COAST.
LOCKED IN UNDER CLOUD COVER, LIGHT PRECIPITATION, AND A NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE MID TO LOW
40S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
THE LOW IS SLOW TO LEAVE AND WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLUMN SATURATES A BIT MORE TOWARDS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SOME STEADIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER, CLOSER TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA. WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE
EARLIER HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT, A 50% CHANCE OF WARM
ADVECTION RAINFALL. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF
TUESDAY WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, EVEN IF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE
RULED OUT DURING MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER, BUT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN UPPER RIDGING DOESN'T RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A SLOW RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH TIMING
OF ANY CHANGES IN THE MVFR/IFR CIGS IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH THE LOW
NEARBY. GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR EXPECTED BY 12-15Z SUNDAY.
ANY LEFTOVER -SN SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO -RASN OR PLAIN RAIN BY 15-
16Z. ALSO, THE INTENSITY OF -RA LESSENS WITH -DZ POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. -RA MAY REDEVELOP FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NNE TO N WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT, THE HIGHEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS DROP OFF
TONIGHT WITH A N WIND AROUND 10-15KT PERSISTING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES VERY UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE NYC
TERMINALS.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALES WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED THIS AFTERNOON TO A SCA AS
NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WERE BEING
REPORTED AT 10 TO 14 FT AT BUOYS 44065 AND 44025, RESPECTIVELY.
THIS IS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY ON THE OCEAN FOR LINGERING 5 FT WAVES.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ON THE
OCEAN FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
TO 25KT ON THE OTHER WATERS AS WELL. THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FELL SHORT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS
UP FOR TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED WITH
UPDATED GUIDANCE. WATER LEVELS MAY FALL JUST SHORT ONCE AGAIN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
335-338-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ332-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT/DW
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC/JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//
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