654
FXUS61 KOKX 121805
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THEREAFTER THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AND ONLY SHALLOW
MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE, EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE INTO TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE EAST, WHILE WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL ALSO DO THE SAME.
NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND VEER TO THE NORTH. EXPECT
GUSTS INITIALLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE, HIGHEST ALONG THE
COAST.
HIGHS HAVE NOT INCREASED MUCH WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S INLAND, TO THE THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. THIS IS WHERE
THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
THE LOW IS SLOW TO LEAVE AND WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLUMN SATURATES A BIT MORE TOWARDS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SOME STEADIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER, CLOSER TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA. WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE
EARLIER HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT, A 50% CHANCE OF WARM
ADVECTION RAINFALL. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE REST OF
TUESDAY WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, EVEN IF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE
RULED OUT DURING MONDAY NIGHT.
A STRONGER, BUT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT FOLLOWS FOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN UPPER RIDGING DOESN'T RETURN UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A SLOW RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.
MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH TIMING
OF ANY CHANGES IN THE MVFR/IFR CIGS IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARBY. GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR
EXPECTED BY 12-15Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS DON'T RETURN UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
THE STEADIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AND NOW WE HAVE JUST SOME LEFTOVER -DZ, WILL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FOR EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
NNE TO N WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT, THE HIGHEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH A N WIND
AROUND 10-15KT PERSISTING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES VERY UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS BECOME VFR.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ALL GALES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED OVER TO A SCA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH WITH THE NON-OCEAN WATERS COMING DOWN BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE OCEAN WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO SEE WIND
GUSTS DROP BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS ARE LIKELY NOT TO FALL BELOW 5
FT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ON THE
OCEAN FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
TO 25KT ON THE OTHER WATERS AS WELL. THE SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE FELL SHORT OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS THIS MORNING. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS
UP FOR TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE FURTHER EVALUATED WITH
UPDATED GUIDANCE. WATER LEVELS MAY FALL JUST SHORT ONCE AGAIN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT/DW
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JT
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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