225
FXUS61 KOKX 121958
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EDT SAT APR 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES,
WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW WILL
THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES TO THE SOUTH OF LI TONIGHT,
WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW-
LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH DRY MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE
RAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. THE 12Z HRRR INDICATED SOME STEADIER
WRAPAROUND RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY TOWARD DAYBREAK,
BUT THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH THE SURFACE
LOW BEING THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, PLAN TO
STILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE INTO THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS THEN DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE RAIN
ENDING BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS
FAR EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH A VERY
SMALL DIURNAL CHANGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY THEN CLIMB INTO THE 50S,
BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
START ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW. NBM AND MOS WERE FAIRLY
CLOSE AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW FLOW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
NORMAL. GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A FURTHER LOOK INTO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FROST ADVISORY TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS TOO WARM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE TIMING AND SPATIAL MOVEMENT OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IMPACTS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MAINLY USED THE NBM DETERMINISTIC PARAMETERS, EXCEPT BLENDED IN THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR WINDS AND GUSTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES, AND THE DETERMINISTIC
UNDER DOES THE WINDS AND GUSTS. THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
PROGRESSIVE MONDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
PASSES THROUGH AND FLATTENS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN USED THE NBM DETERMINISTIC THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, EVEN FOR WINDS AND GUSTS SATURDAY AS TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY.
MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD DOMINATE THE FORECAST PERIOD, THOUGH TIMING
OF ANY CHANGES IN THE MVFR/IFR CIGS IS VERY UNCERTAIN WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARBY. GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR
EXPECTED BY 12-15Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS DON'T RETURN UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 18Z.
THE STEADIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AND NOW WE HAVE JUST SOME LEFTOVER -DZ, WILL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOME RAIN MAY REDEVELOP FOR EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
NNE TO N WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT, THE HIGHEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. GUSTS DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH A N WIND
AROUND 10-15KT PERSISTING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES VERY UNCERTAIN.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: ANY LEFTOVER MVFR CONDITIONS BECOME VFR.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.
MONDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCAS ARE UP ON ALL WATERS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE DROPPED LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS. HOWEVER, THE OCEAN WILL
TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS TO FALL BELOW 25 KT AND
SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS. AND BY LATE DAY TUESDAY OCEAN SEAS BUILDS TO 5 TO 6
FEET. SCA GUSTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS. AND IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT OR JUST
ABOVE SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING, AND SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. ALSO, OCEAN SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SUB ADVISORY ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN DROPPED AS WATER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. WITH
WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND WATER LEVELS OVER FORECAST THIS
MORNING, THIS THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//
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