487
FXUS61 KOKX 130545
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
145 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES, WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND IMPACT
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
FORECAST ON TRACK AS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE.
THE PRECIPITATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SCATTERED AS DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST
THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA AT 23Z.
EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATES TO THE SOUTH OF LI TONIGHT,
WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW-
LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH DRY MID LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THE RAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT. THE 12Z HRRR INDICATED SOME STEADIER WRAPAROUND
RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY TOWARD DAYBREAK, BUT THIS
SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME WITH THE SURFACE LOW BEING
THE FARTHEST WEST OF THE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, PLAN TO STILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE INTO THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS THEN DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE RAIN ENDING
BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT COULD LINGER ACROSS FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S WITH A VERY
SMALL DIURNAL CHANGE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY THEN CLIMB INTO THE 50S,
BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
START ALONG WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW. NBM AND MOS WERE FAIRLY
CLOSE AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING NW FLOW. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
NORMAL. GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SO WILL HAVE TO TAKE A FURTHER LOOK INTO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FROST ADVISORY TOMORROW NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS TOO WARM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE TIMING AND SPATIAL MOVEMENT OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IMPACTS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MAINLY USED THE NBM DETERMINISTIC PARAMETERS, EXCEPT BLENDED IN THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR WINDS AND GUSTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE TWO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES, AND THE DETERMINISTIC
UNDER DOES THE WINDS AND GUSTS. THE UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
PROGRESSIVE MONDAY INTO LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
PASSES THROUGH AND FLATTENS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH AFFECTS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN USED THE NBM DETERMINISTIC THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, EVEN FOR WINDS AND GUSTS SATURDAY AS TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY.
MVFR AND IFR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR EVERYWHERE IS
EXPECTED BY 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS DON'T RETURN UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, THIS IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND VFR CONDITIONS COULD RETURN SEVERAL HOURS
EARLIER THAN IS FORECAST.
SOME RAIN HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN TERMINALS WHICH COULD
AFFECT THESE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE MAIN
TERMINALS IMPACTED WOULD BE KGON AND KISP. HOWEVER, THESE
SHOWERS MAY PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE CITY TERMINALS OVERNIGHT,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY LOWERING OF CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES.
NNE TO N WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KT, THE
HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY AFFECTING KBDR, KGON, AND
AT TIMES, KISP. GUSTS LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN SUNDAY MORNING,
AROUND 14Z, AND DIMINISH BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z MONDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES VERY UNCERTAIN, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONDITIONS IMPROVING SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. MVFR OR LOWER IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCAS ARE UP ON ALL WATERS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE DROPPED LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS. HOWEVER, THE OCEAN WILL
TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS TO FALL BELOW 25 KT AND
SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 5 FT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS. AND BY LATE DAY TUESDAY OCEAN SEAS BUILDS TO 5 TO 6
FEET. SCA GUSTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS. AND IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT, GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT OR JUST
ABOVE SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING, AND SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. ALSO, OCEAN SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE SUB ADVISORY ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN DROPPED AS WATER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. WITH
WINDS MORE NORTHERLY AND WATER LEVELS OVER FORECAST THIS
MORNING, THIS THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SYNOPSIS...MET/DW
NEAR TERM...MET/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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