866
FXUS61 KOKX 130956
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
556 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AND MOVES
NORTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION FRIDAY AND AFFECTS THE AREA GOING INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
THE CENTER TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND PIVOT INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
AS THE LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY, SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
AS THE FORCING WEAKENS BY LATE MORNING. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW DRIZZLE TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
EASTERN AREAS, BUT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN, SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE EASTERN CWA
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
BY TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH DRIER NW FLOW PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY
AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM
THE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS
SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BULK OF THE
MID-LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY PASSES OVERHEAD BY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW
PRESSURE HEADING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO CUT OFF PRECIPITATION
FOR OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WHILE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MID-WEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES TOWARD THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH CENTER OF THE HIGH SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT IT ALLOWS FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST, WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT, WITH THE
GFS BEING UNCHARACTERISTICALLY SLOW WITH THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION, ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE NORTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY.
MVFR AND IFR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST INTO THIS MORNING.
GENERAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR EVERYWHERE IS EXPECTED BY 12Z-15Z
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS DON'T RETURN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, THIS IS A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND VFR
CONDITIONS COULD RETURN SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN IS FORECAST.
RAIN CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TO WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK TODAY,
AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KSWF.
NNE TO N WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT, THE HIGHEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST, MAINLY AFFECTING KBDR, KGON, AND AT TIMES,
KISP. GUSTS LOOK TO MAKE A RETURN THIS MORNING, AROUND 14Z, AND
DIMINISH BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z MONDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES VERY UNCERTAIN, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONDITIONS IMPROVING SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST.
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. MVFR OR LOWER IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS ON THE OCEAN MAINLY FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 5 FEET
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. WAVES FINALLY DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUB-SCA PREVAILING FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA POSSIBLE FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ON ALL WATERS, BUT RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS MARGINAL. WAVES ON THE OCEAN WILL START OFF AT AROUND 5
FT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT BY
WEDNESDAY, THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, NO MARINE
CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JP/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page