410
FXUS61 KOKX 131816
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
216 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA, WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FRIDAY AND
AFFECTS THE AREA GOING INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A LIGHT SPOTTY SHOWER OUT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WORK AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY.
AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN, SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR THE WESTERN CWA WITH THE EASTERN CWA CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/
BY TONIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH DRIER NW FLOW PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN
BUILDS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL KEEP THE DAY DRY
AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY WITH
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AS THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FROM
THE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS
SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY.
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE POSSIBLE GOING INTO THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BULK OF THE
MID-LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY PASSES OVERHEAD BY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH LOW
PRESSURE HEADING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE. DRY SLOT LOOKS TO CUT OFF PRECIPITATION
FOR OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST WHILE A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MID-WEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES TOWARD THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH CENTER OF THE HIGH SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE HIGH PUSHES OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT IT ALLOWS FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST, WITH A WARM FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT, WITH THE
GFS BEING UNCHARACTERISTICALLY SLOW WITH THE ONSET OF ANY
PRECIPITATION, ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY
AWAY FROM THE AREA, WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE MAINLY A VFR FORECAST WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KGON. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR ELSEWHERE.
N-NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT, WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS DIMINISH BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BACK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. MVFR OR LOWER IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT
NIGHT. CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS ON THE OCEAN MAINLY FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE 5 FEET
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. WAVES FINALLY DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUB-SCA PREVAILING FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA POSSIBLE FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ON ALL WATERS, BUT RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS MARGINAL. WAVES ON THE OCEAN WILL START OFF AT AROUND 5
FT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FT BY
WEDNESDAY, THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, NO MARINE
CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JP/MW
NEAR TERM...BC/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW
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