376
FXUS61 KOKX 131947
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
AND MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE, WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. A DRIER NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
THAT WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ON ANY CONVECTION. ANY THUNDER WOULD BE ISOLATED.
WHILE TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS A DRY
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE WEDNESDAY
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A BUILDING REGION TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WEAKENS AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH,
MAINLY TO THE NORTH, SATURDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY USED THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH ONLY LEANING
TOWARD THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR WINDS AND GUSTS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WHILE A
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT, AND A CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
INTO WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES,
WITH TEMPERATURES NOW ABOUT 2 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND A RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS, AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY
AWAY FROM THE AREA, WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE MAINLY A VFR FORECAST WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR THIS
AFTERNOON AT KGON. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR ELSEWHERE.
N-NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT, WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS DIMINISH BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BACK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT
10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. MVFR OR LOWER IN POSSIBLE SHOWERS AT
NIGHT. CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WNW WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP
THE SCAS THAT ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE MAY HOWEVER
BE A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 25KT ACROSS THE NEAR-SHORE WATERS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY START TO RISE CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN
OCEAN WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FORECAST WATERS,
ESPECIALLY THE OCEAN, TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE NON OCEAN WATERS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ON THE OCEAN WATERS SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE
CONDITIONS FALL BELOW ADVISORY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY
MORNING SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
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