708
FXUS61 KOKX 140327
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1127 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE WEST, A DRIER NW FLOW
WILL CONTINUE, BECOMING SW-S MON AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. THE RIDGE WILL START TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY EVENING. AFTER LOW TEMPS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S, HIGHS ON MON WILL BE IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ON ANY CONVECTION. ANY THUNDER WOULD BE ISOLATED.
WHILE TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS A DRY
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE WEDNESDAY
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A BUILDING REGION TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WEAKENS AND MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH,
MAINLY TO THE NORTH, SATURDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY USED THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH ONLY LEANING
TOWARD THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR WINDS AND GUSTS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WHILE A
COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT, AND A CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS
INTO WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES,
WITH TEMPERATURES NOW ABOUT 2 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND A RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS, AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR AS WEAK WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
NW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK W AND THEN SW
DAYTIME MON, AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY SEA BREEZE
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. LATE DAY, AFTER 20Z, SEA BREEZE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KJFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS AT NIGHT, MAINLY LATE.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. W WINDS G20-25KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WNW WINDS G25-30KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING.
SEAS MAY START TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FT ON THE EASTERN OCEAN
WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
SCA COND ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FORECAST WATERS, ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN, FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE
OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SUBSIDING ACROSS THE NON OCEAN WATERS LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ON THE OCEAN WATERS SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. ONCE CONDITIONS FALL BELOW ADVISORY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING SCA CONDITIONS MAY BE
DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BC/BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/BG/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET/BG
MARINE...BC/BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page