651
FXUS61 KOKX 141944
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOT THROUGH BY MID
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES SOUTH
OF THE AREA THURSDAY, AND PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST THIS EVENING WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE
PASSAGE WORKING THROUGH EARLY. ANY SFC RIDGING GETS OFFSHORE WITH
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS INCREASING CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. THIS ALL TAKES
PLACE AS A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO FAR SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREFORE CLOUDS LOWER
AND THICKEN QUICKLY AS INDICATED BY BUFKIT PROFILES AND NWP. THE
HIGHER RES NWP INDICATES RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVING TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT WITH MUCH, IF NOT ALL OF THE EVENING DRY FROM THE CITY ON
EAST. FURTHER WEST A FEW SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE BY 02-03Z. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD ONLY LAST 3 TO 4 HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE SHOULD
PIVOT THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY AN ELEVATED WARM / OCCLUDED FRONT BY THE
TIME IT ARRIVES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS BUT WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT LAGGING BEHIND SOME THERE IS NOT
AN EXPECTATION FOR ANY THUNDER LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH, BUT THEN BEGIN TO VEER
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WITH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FOR LOWS.
THE BOUNDARY AT THE SFC GETS EAST OF THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE WINDS STARTING TO GUST TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND
AROUND MIDDAY. THE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GUST TO AROUND
35 MPH, WITH A FEW GUST PERHAPS GETTING BRIEFLY TO 40 MPH TOWARDS 21-
22Z. THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY GET DRIER THROUGH THE DAY,
THAT BY AFTERNOON A QUASI V-TYPE SOUNDING IS INDICATED VIA BUFKIT
PROFILES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF MID LEVEL CAPE AS MID AND
UPPER LEVELS COOL AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GENERATES SOMEWHAT OF A
SYNOPTIC B TYPE SOUNDING WITH LOWERING NEAR SFC DEW POINTS. THIS
INDICATES A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED LOWER TOP TYPE CONVECTION. ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH ONLY MINIMAL CAPE AVAILABLE
AT AROUND 100 J/KG. WITH THE CLOUD LAYER QUITE DRY ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE LOCALIZED 40 TO 45 KT GUSTS, BUT
WITH COVERAGE IN QUESTION AS THE AVERAGE RH IN THE COLUMN LOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN SUMMARY, THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWER / CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN DOUBT RESULTING IN A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND FOR NOW
WILL KEEP OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING WITH REGARD TO ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL / GRAUPEL POTENTIAL. IF CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE
GROWS SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS CAN ADD ANY NECESSARY DETAILS INTO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS
OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S, WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/ SHOWERS BUT WITH THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN GETTING
DRIER OVERALL WITH COLD ADVECTION. WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN
PLACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERALL. WITH THE WINDS REMAINING IN
PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY GET BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S, BUT IT WILL FEEL A GOOD 7 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER WITH THE WIND.
ON WEDNESDAY A DEEP LAYERED W TO NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE
NW ATLANTIC. THIS, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING
TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. A W TO WNW FLOW THIS
TIME OF YEAR CAN TYPICALLY LEAD TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STRONG CP AIR MASS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF
OF THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION IS NOW A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED, AND A
ZONAL FLOW MAY SET UP ACROSS THE REGION, ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS SOME FORCING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED, AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND MAY SLOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH FEW
TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AND WITH UNCERTAINTY
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY WENT TOWARD THE 75TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES FOR WINDS AND GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN WITH A RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SATURDAY'S HIGHS
POTENTIALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA FROM ABOUT 07Z TO 09Z.
CONFIDENCE OF IFR AT KSWF IS LOWER AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS
FROM 04Z TO 09Z. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND A THUNDERSTORM SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL BUT
KGON IN THE 12Z-14Z TIMEFRAME. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
AT KGON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
SEABREEZE ENHANCEMENTS LIKELY. KEWR AND KTEB MAY SHIFT MORE TO
THE SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NYC TERMINALS AND KISP AS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY. WSW WINDS GRADUALLY RAMP UP IN THE MORNING TO
10-15KT WITH G20KT, THEN 20-25KT G30-35KT IN THE AFTERNOON
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING MAY
VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WNW WINDS G25-30KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT. S WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. SW WINDS G15-20KT,
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST QUICKLY TUESDAY. A
FEW MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE WESTERN
WATERS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO A PORTION OF TUESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE WEST. OCEAN SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET MAY LINGER ABOUT
5 FEET UNTIL TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, WILL NOT EXTEND
THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME, AS TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AND, GUSTS
WILL BE NEAR 25 KT ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND BAYS, AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS THEN
SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE FORECAST WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ335-338-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET
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