678
FXUS61 KOKX 142345
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
745 PM EDT MON APR 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOT THROUGH BY MID
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY, AND PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH UPDATES FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS, MAINLY
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES EAST THIS EVENING WITH THE 500 MB
RIDGE PASSAGE WORKING THROUGH EARLY. ANY SFC RIDGING GETS
OFFSHORE WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS INCREASING CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT. THIS ALL TAKES PLACE AS A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO FAR SOUTHERN
CANADA. THEREFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN QUICKLY AS INDICATED
BY BUFKIT PROFILES AND NWP. THE HIGHER RES NWP INDICATES RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARRIVING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH MUCH, IF NOT ALL
OF THE EVENING DRY FROM THE CITY ON EAST. FURTHER WEST A FEW
SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE BY 02-03Z. THE SHOWERS SHOULD ONLY LAST 3
TO 4 HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE SHOULD PIVOT THROUGH
FAIRLY QUICKLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE
PRIMARILY AN ELEVATED WARM / OCCLUDED FRONT BY THE TIME IT
ARRIVES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS BUT WITH AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT LAGGING BEHIND SOME THERE IS
NOT AN EXPECTATION FOR ANY THUNDER LATE TONIGHT. THE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH, BUT
THEN BEGIN TO VEER TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WITH CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS.
THE BOUNDARY AT THE SFC GETS EAST OF THE AREA QUICKLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE WINDS STARTING TO GUST TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND
AROUND MIDDAY. THE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 35 MPH, WITH A FEW GUST PERHAPS GETTING BRIEFLY TO 40 MPH
TOWARDS 21- 22Z. THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY GET DRIER
THROUGH THE DAY, THAT BY AFTERNOON A QUASI V-TYPE SOUNDING IS
INDICATED VIA BUFKIT PROFILES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF MID
LEVEL CAPE AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS COOL AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
GENERATES SOMEWHAT OF A SYNOPTIC B TYPE SOUNDING WITH LOWERING
NEAR SFC DEW POINTS. THIS INDICATES A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
LOWER TOP TYPE CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED WITH ONLY MINIMAL CAPE AVAILABLE AT AROUND 100 J/KG.
WITH THE CLOUD LAYER QUITE DRY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE
TO GENERATE LOCALIZED 40 TO 45 KT GUSTS, BUT WITH COVERAGE IN
QUESTION AS THE AVERAGE RH IN THE COLUMN LOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN SUMMARY, THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWER /
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN DOUBT RESULTING IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND FOR NOW WILL
KEEP OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING WITH REGARD TO ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL / GRAUPEL POTENTIAL. IF CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE GROWS SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS CAN ADD ANY NECESSARY DETAILS
INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S, WITH A FEW UPPER
60S POSSIBLE WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/ SHOWERS BUT WITH THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN
GETTING DRIER OVERALL WITH COLD ADVECTION. WITH A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERALL. WITH
THE WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY GET BACK
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, BUT IT WILL FEEL A GOOD 7 TO 10
DEGREES COLDER WITH THE WIND.
ON WEDNESDAY A DEEP LAYERED W TO NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY. A W TO WNW FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN TYPICALLY LEAD TO
WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STRONG CP AIR
MASS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION IS NOW A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED, AND A ZONAL FLOW MAY SET UP ACROSS THE REGION,
ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
THERE IS SOME FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOISTURE IS
MORE LIMITED, AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH FEW
TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AND WITH UNCERTAINTY
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY WENT TOWARD THE 75TH AND
90TH PERCENTILES FOR WINDS AND GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN WITH A RETURN
FLOW AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
SATURDAY'S HIGHS POTENTIALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS INTO LATE TONIGHT/EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING IFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA BEGINNING AROUND 08Z AND CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, TO 14Z/15Z, EXCEPT AT KSWF WHICH REMAINS
WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, AND PROBABLY DOES NOT EVEN HAVE
MVFR CONDITIONS, AND HAVE BEE MORE OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAF.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS FROM 04Z TO 09Z.
INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND A THUNDERSTORM SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL BUT KGON IN THE 12Z-14Z
TIMEFRAME. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON, 19Z, AT KGON FOR
VFR.
S/SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL SEABREEZE
ENHANCEMENTS LIKELY. KEWR AND KTEB MAY SHIFT MORE TO THE SE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT
MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS AND
KISP AS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. WSW WINDS
GRADUALLY RAMP UP IN THE MORNING TO 10-15KT WITH G20KT, THEN 20-25KT
G30-35KT IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CEILINGS WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT AND MAY BE MORE AROUND 1K FT. ONSET OF HIGHER WINDS
AND GUSTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER.
AND A FEW GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 40KT IN GUSTY
SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WINDS G25-35KT EARLY IN THE EVENING,
DIMINISHING TO G20-25KT LATE.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WNW WINDS G25-30KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT. S WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. SW WINDS G15-20KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NO CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS AT THIS TIME.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST QUICKLY
TUESDAY. A FEW MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
OF THE WESTERN WATERS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO A PORTION OF
TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO A
PORTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. OCEAN SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET MAY LINGER ABOUT 5 FEET UNTIL TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, WILL NOT EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THIS
TIME, AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AND, GUSTS
WILL BE NEAR 25 KT ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND BAYS, AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS THEN
SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE FORECAST WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ335-338-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET
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