438
FXUS61 KOKX 150622
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
222 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A SERIES
OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOT THROUGH BY MID WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES SOUTH
OF THE AREA THURSDAY, AND PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. MAINLY JUST LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS MOVING
THROUGH, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER BEING SEEN.
THE BOUNDARY AT THE SFC GETS EAST OF THE AREA QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE WINDS STARTING TO GUST TOWARDS LATE MORNING AND
AROUND MIDDAY. THE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 35 MPH, WITH A FEW GUST PERHAPS GETTING BRIEFLY TO 40 MPH
TOWARDS 21- 22Z. THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY GET DRIER
THROUGH THE DAY, THAT BY AFTERNOON A QUASI V-TYPE SOUNDING IS
INDICATED VIA BUFKIT PROFILES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF MID
LEVEL CAPE AS MID AND UPPER LEVELS COOL AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
GENERATES SOMEWHAT OF A SYNOPTIC B TYPE SOUNDING WITH LOWERING
NEAR SFC DEW POINTS. THIS INDICATES A CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED
LOWER TOP TYPE CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED WITH ONLY MINIMAL CAPE AVAILABLE AT AROUND 100 J/KG.
WITH THE CLOUD LAYER QUITE DRY ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE
TO GENERATE LOCALIZED 40 TO 45 KT GUSTS, BUT WITH COVERAGE IN
QUESTION AS THE AVERAGE RH IN THE COLUMN LOWERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN SUMMARY, THE DEGREE OF COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWER /
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN DOUBT RESULTING IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH CHANCE POPS AND FOR NOW WILL
KEEP OUT ANY ENHANCED WORDING WITH REGARD TO ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL / GRAUPEL POTENTIAL. IF CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE GROWS SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS CAN ADD ANY NECESSARY DETAILS
INTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOTS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S, WITH A FEW UPPER
60S POSSIBLE WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
FOR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/ SHOWERS BUT WITH THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN
GETTING DRIER OVERALL WITH COLD ADVECTION. WITH A PRESSURE
GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERALL. WITH
THE WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY GET BACK
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, BUT IT WILL FEEL A GOOD 7 TO 10
DEGREES COLDER WITH THE WIND.
ON WEDNESDAY A DEEP LAYERED W TO NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY. A W TO WNW FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN TYPICALLY LEAD TO
WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STRONG CP AIR
MASS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY A TRANQUIL EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION IS NOW A LITTLE MORE
AMPLIFIED, AND A ZONAL FLOW MAY SET UP ACROSS THE REGION,
ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE
THERE IS SOME FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOISTURE IS
MORE LIMITED, AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND MAY SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE
DETERMINISTIC NBM GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED WITH FEW
TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AND WITH UNCERTAINTY
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY WENT TOWARD THE 75TH AND
90TH PERCENTILES FOR WINDS AND GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE UP TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THEN WITH A RETURN
FLOW AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
SATURDAY'S HIGHS POTENTIALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY HOURS OF TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS (KJFK, KISP, KBDR,
AND KGON) BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND LOCATION, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KLGA, KEWR, KTEB, AND KHPN. AFTER 14Z, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KGON WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK TO RETURN UNTIL MID AFTERNOON, 16Z.
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS AS OF 06Z AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 07Z-11Z (POSSIBLY ENDING EARLIER).
THEREAFTER, SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS FROM 17Z-23Z. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND A
THUNDERSTORM SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
WINDS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS AND KISP AS THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. WSW WINDS GRADUALLY RAMP UP LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING TO 10-15KT WITH G20KT, THEN 20-25KT.
G30-35KT IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KLGA, KEWR AND
KTEB, MAINLY FROM 11Z-13Z, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
PUT IN TAFS. ONSET OF HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER. AND A FEW GUSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 40KT IN GUSTY SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WINDS G25-30KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WNW WINDS G25-30KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT. S WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. SW WINDS G15-20KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NO CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS AT THIS TIME.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST QUICKLY
TUESDAY. A FEW MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME
OF THE WESTERN WATERS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO A PORTION OF
TUESDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO A
PORTION OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. OCEAN SEAS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET MAY LINGER ABOUT 5 FEET UNTIL TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, WILL NOT EXTEND THE SCA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THIS
TIME, AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AND, GUSTS
WILL BE NEAR 25 KT ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND BAYS, AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS THEN
SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE FORECAST WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/MET
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page