022
FXUS61 KOKX 151233 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
833 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A SERIES OF WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT, REMAINING IN
CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FRIDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
SHOWERS ARE JUST ABOUT LEAVING THE AREA THAT WERE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. THE TRIPLE POINT IS
PROGGED TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD THIS MORNING ONCE THIS ACTIVITY EXITS. SOME GUIDANCE IS
THEN HINTING AT SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE FRONT
AND SCRAPING BY SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH EAST.
THEREAFTER HOWEVER, A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. COOLING
ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
IN MODEL REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. WHEN THESE SHOWERS FIRST MOVE INTO
THE AREA IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
ANY THUNDER BECAUSE A MID- LEVEL CAP IS EVIDENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS AROUND 600MB. THIS CAP IS JUST BELOW THE -10C TO - 20C
LAYER. ONCE THIS CAP WEAKENS BY 20Z OR SO, THEN ABOUT 100 TO
200 J/KG OF CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE -10C TO -20C LAYER AND
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW, ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN 40+ KT GUSTS. SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, THE SYNOPTIC WINDS
THEMSELVES WILL BE VERY GUSTY. DEEP MIXING IS SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS IN STRONG CAA. THE DEEPEST MIXING OCCURS IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNSET AND EXPECTING THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS
HERE. MAINLY 35 TO 40 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL 45 MPH GUST POSSIBLE.
HIGHS REACH THE 60S TODAY, LIKELY A BIT EARLIER THAN CLIMO FOR
WESTERN LOCATIONS, MAYBE CLOSER TO 2 PM.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE FEATURES. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN
WEDNESDAY, BUT CLOSER TO 30 TO 35 MPH. HEIGHTS START RISING
ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, SO WENT STRAIGHT CONSMOS GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAKENING RIDGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED TO THE
SOUTH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM IT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE BE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS FOR
THE REST OF SUNDAY.
WITH A BUILDING RIDGE MOVING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT, A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S ON THURSDAY WILL RISE
INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS. COOLER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL AREAS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TODAY. SHOWERS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AS OF 1130Z ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE ANY IMPACT TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
THIS MORNING. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY AFTER 17Z WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. INSTABILITY IS WEAK AND A THUNDERSTORM SEEMS
UNLIKELY, HOWEVER A PASSING THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
ANY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. SHOWERS LOOK
TO END AROUND 23Z-01Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND GRADUALLY
RAMP UP THIS MORNING TO 10-15KT WITH 20 KT GUSTS. WINDS SHIFT
MORE TO THE W THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO
20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTS 30-35KT IN THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTS DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL ARE
STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 KT
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR. WNW WINDS G25-30KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT. S WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. SW WINDS G15-20KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS RAMP UP TODAY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NOW GOES INTO EFFECT EVERYWHERE AT 12 PM. TRICKY WIND
FORECAST AS THERE WILL BE AN INVERSION IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, GUSTS ON LAND COULD REACH
JUST BELOW 40 KT AROUND WESTERN LONG ISLAND, NYC, NORTHEAST NJ
AND SOUTHER WESTCHESTER. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A GALE
WARNING, BUT GUSTS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WILL AT LEAST
OCCASIONALLY REACH 35 TO 40 KT. THE INVERSION WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN OVER
THE OPEN WATERS BY TONIGHT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD
WHERE GALES ARE EXPECTED. HAVE ALSO HELD OFF ON GALE WARNING
ISSUANCE FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE BRIEF PERIOD. A SHORT FUSED GALE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED, OR POTENTIALLY AN MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.
GUSTS GRADUALLY LOWER ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOST WATERS
WILL BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA, WITH THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE LIKELY
LINGERING DUE TO 5FT WAVES. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT BUT BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE FRIDAY TO
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY ON THE OCEAN. WAVES CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
4 TO 8 FT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WAVES SLOWLY DIMINISH THEREAFTER
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ALL OCEAN ZONES BELOW 5 FT BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KT THROUGH FRIDAY, ARE EXPECTED TO GUST
25 TO 30 KT KT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS ON THE
OCEAN FALL BELOW 25 KT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT NON-OCEAN WATERS REACH SCA GUSTS ON SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT
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