714
FXUS61 KOKX 151936
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOT THROUGH FOR MID
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FOR EARLY THIS EVENING THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES/
SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO. INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS YIELD THE CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS WITH ANY
STRONGER REFLECTIVITY / LOW TOP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE COLUMN GETTING DRIER OVERALL WITH COLD ADVECTION ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITHOUT THE AID OF DAYTIME
HEATING. WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY. THERE MAY BE A PARTICULAR HOUR OR TWO WHERE THE GUSTS SUBSIDE
SOME, BUT OVERALL EXPECT GUSTS TO STAY IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF SOME GUSTS STILL UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WITH THE WINDS
REMAINING IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY GET BACK MAINLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, BUT IT WILL FEEL A GOOD 7 TO 10 DEGREES
COLDER WITH THE WIND.
FOR WEDNESDAY A DEEP LAYERED W FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE NW
ATLANTIC. THIS, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS WILL KEEP GUSTY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH WINDS LIKELY GUSTING
TO AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. A W TO WNW FLOW
THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN TYPICALLY LEAD TO WARMER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STRONG CP AIR MASS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS
AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF OF
THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT EXPECT A GOOD
DEAL OF STRAT-CUM YIELDING BROKEN CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE TIME,
ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST-NORTHWEST, WITH INTERVALS OF SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER AT TIMES FURTHER EAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO COMPLETELY RELAX, THUS EXPECT
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE OF A RELAXATION AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT THINKING HAS THE WINDS STAYING UP
ENOUGH THAT FROST FORMATION SHOULD BE AVOIDED ALONG WITH ANY FREEZE.
BUT IF WINDS SUBSIDE MORE THAN EXPECTED PERHAPS PORTIONS OF ORANGE,
PUTNAM, NORTHWESTERN PASSAIC, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FAIRFIELD
COUNTIES COULD GET TO FREEZING. OTHERWISE LOWS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE
IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 30S TO AROUND 40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THURSDAY IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, BUT A
BREEZE OUT OF THE WNW SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN WITH THE WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL
BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SINKING MOTION AND SOME
SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY A WNW WIND. WITH AIR MASS MODIFICATION EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* QUIET, COOL, AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
* A WARM FRONT LEADS TO HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME SPOTS
SATURDAY.
* AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
* ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT WET WEATHER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE IMPACT US MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY NIGHT, POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-30S TO LOW-40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO THEN INTO QUEBEC. THIS BRINGS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALONG THE WARM FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER ON-AND-OFF THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT. THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH VERY HIGH HEIGHTS
ALOFT HELP CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SATURDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-70S TO NEAR 80, EXCEPT OUT
EAST ON LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID-
60S. LOWS ALSO LOOK WARMER DUE TO THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT INTO SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING AT THE SURFACE. ON SUNDAY, HIGHS BOUNCE BACK CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE LOW-60S TO UPPER-50S.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT US
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY STILL VARIES AMONG THE AVAILABLE 12Z GLOBAL
GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, STICKING WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SW-W WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, BECOMING 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SETTLE TO THE W BECOMING 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT. SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
MAY CONTAIN STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS 40-45 KT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS ON NW. HAVE HANDLED THIS POTENTIAL WITH A
PROB30, MAINLY FROM 20Z-00Z. THE SHOWER POTENTIAL DIMINISHES BY 01Z.
W-WNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT, 25-30 KT, ALTHOUGH SOME
OUTLYING TERMINALS COULD SEE GUSTS BRIEFLY END OR WEAKEN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WNW WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS 40-45 KT POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS 20Z-00Z. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS LIKELY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, BUT
GUSTS COULD STILL REACH 30 KT AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT: VFR. WNW WINDS G25-30KT IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
MAINLY INLAND. S WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY INLAND. SW WINDS G20-
25KT.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT FUSED MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENTS WITH ANY LOW TOP CONVECTION THAT ATTEMPTS TO FIRE UP
EARLY THIS EVENING. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE OVERALL HAS INCREASED SOME FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS DURING PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS OUT EAST RAMP UP TO LOW END GALES TOWARDS LATE EVENING.
STILL A TRICKY WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE TOTAL DURATION OF GALES
BEGINNING VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND NOT ONLY THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GOING
THROUGH 10Z, BUT THIS CAN BE RE-EVALUATED LATER. THERE LOOKS TO BE
AT LEAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WHERE GALES ARE EXPECTED. GUSTS CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT MAY BE MORE MARGINAL IN TERMS OF GALES, AT LEAST MORE
MARGINAL AT TIMES. INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME WATERS WILL BE HOVERING
AROUND SCA CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH PEAK GUSTS DO LOWER. SUB- SCA
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS
AND WAVES CLIMB TO SCA LEVELS ON OCEAN WATERS. WINDS GUST
25-30KT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ON OCEAN WATERS. THEY DROP
BELOW 25KT SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVES CLIMB 5-7 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON OCEAN WATERS. ALL
WATERS WILL THEN BE BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
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