313
FXUS61 KOKX 160246
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE PIVOT THROUGH FOR MID
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME AT 02Z. WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ROTATING INTO THE UPPER LOW A MID DECK WAS MOVING BACK INTO THE
REGION, AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH THE DOWNSLOPING
GUSTY WINDS, AND AS THE LOWER PORTION OF THE COLUMN GETS DRIER
OVERALL WITH COLD ADVECTION. UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY. THERE MAY BE A PARTICULAR HOUR OR TWO WHERE THE GUSTS
SUBSIDE SOME, BUT OVERALL EXPECT GUSTS TO STAY IN PLACE ALONG
WITH THE PROSPECTS OF SOME GUSTS STILL UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.
WITH THE WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY GET
BACK MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, BUT IT WILL FEEL A
GOOD 7 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER WITH THE WIND.
FOR WEDNESDAY A DEEP LAYERED W FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND THE NW ATLANTIC. THIS, ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL KEEP GUSTY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH
WINDS LIKELY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY. A W TO WNW FLOW THIS TIME OF YEAR CAN TYPICALLY LEAD TO
WARMER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A STRONG CP AIR
MASS WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE WITH MAINLY LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF STRATO CU
YIELDING BROKEN CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE TIME, ESPECIALLY FURTHER
WEST-NORTHWEST, WITH INTERVALS OF SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AT
TIMES FURTHER EAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO COMPLETELY RELAX, THUS
EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE OF A RELAXATION AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM
THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT THINKING HAS THE WINDS
STAYING UP ENOUGH THAT FROST FORMATION SHOULD BE AVOIDED ALONG
WITH ANY FREEZE. BUT IF WINDS SUBSIDE MORE THAN EXPECTED PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF ORANGE, PUTNAM, NORTHWESTERN PASSAIC, AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES COULD GET TO FREEZING. OTHERWISE
LOWS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 30S TO AROUND
40 UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THURSDAY IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS,
BUT A BREEZE OUT OF THE WNW SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN
WITH THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE
SINKING MOTION AND SOME SUBSIDENCE PROVIDED BY A WNW WIND. WITH
AIR MASS MODIFICATION EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* QUIET, COOL, AND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
* A WARM FRONT LEADS TO HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN SOME SPOTS
SATURDAY.
* AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
* ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT AT WET WEATHER MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE IMPACT US MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY NIGHT, POSITIONED
TO OUR SOUTH. THIS BRINGS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW-30S TO LOW-40S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO THEN INTO QUEBEC. THIS BRINGS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALONG THE WARM FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER ON-AND-OFF THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT. THE WARM FRONT ALONG WITH VERY HIGH HEIGHTS
ALOFT HELP CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SATURDAY
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO BE IN THE LOW-70S TO NEAR 80, EXCEPT OUT
EAST ON LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW/MID-
60S. LOWS ALSO LOOK WARMER DUE TO THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES SATURDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE THINGS DRY OUT INTO SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING AT THE SURFACE. ON SUNDAY, HIGHS BOUNCE BACK CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS IN THE LOW-60S TO UPPER-50S.
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT US
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY STILL VARIES AMONG THE AVAILABLE 12Z GLOBAL
GUIDANCE. FOR NOW, STICKING WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NW/W WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AND
GUSTS MAY DIMINISH LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GUSTS
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY ENDING AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS. WNW WINDS
THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. BY LATE
DAY WINDS MAY BECOME MORE NW AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS LIKELY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
MAINLY INLAND. S WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY INLAND. SW WINDS G20-
25KT.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE OVERALL HAS INCREASED SOME FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING
PORTIONS OF THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OUT
EAST RAMP UP TO LOW END GALES TOWARDS LATE EVENING. STILL A TRICKY
WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE TOTAL DURATION OF GALES NOT ONLY
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW ONLY HAVE THE
GALE WARNING GOING THROUGH 10Z, BUT THIS CAN BE RE-EVALUATED
LATER. THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST 3 TO 4 HOURS WHERE GALES ARE
EXPECTED. GUSTS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BUT MAY BE MORE MARGINAL
IN TERMS OF GALES, AT LEAST MORE MARGINAL AT TIMES. INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SOME WATERS WILL BE HOVERING AROUND SCA CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH
PEAK GUSTS DO LOWER. SUB- SCA CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PREVALENT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS
AND WAVES CLIMB TO SCA LEVELS ON OCEAN WATERS. WINDS GUST
25-30KT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ON OCEAN WATERS. THEY DROP
BELOW 25KT SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVES CLIMB 5-7 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND
STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON OCEAN WATERS. ALL
WATERS WILL THEN BE BELOW SCA LEVELS SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JE/BR/MET
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JE/BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page