080
FXUS61 KOKX 170228
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1028 PM EDT WED APR 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT
AND THEN OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE. THEN, A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
LOOPS, AND WAS MOVING A STRATO CU LAYER SOUTHWARD. SKY
CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS AND GUSTS ARE ALSO
REMAINING STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.
OTHERWISE, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
SPIN AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE MARITIMES INTO THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REGION BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST. THE LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
MARITIMES LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE TO BEGIN
SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, WEAKENING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS LOSING THE GUSTS. THE BOUNDARY
DOES NOT DECOUPLE WITH THE GRADIENT IN PLACE SO SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN UP AND BE AROUND 10 MPH FOR MOST SPOTS.
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 4-5 KFT
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. THE BROKEN STRATOCU ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOULD SCATTER OUT LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S INLAND AND
UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FROST IS NOT EXPECTED
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN DUE TO THE WINDS REMAINING
UP AND TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S.
WNW-NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, BUT THE AIR MASS BEGINS
TO MODERATE. MIXING DOES NOT APPEAR AS DEEP, BUT MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED ALL YEAR WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER AND
RESULTING WINDS. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY WHERE WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN MODELED, WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE FOR TEMPERATURES, WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MOST SPOTS. SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
20-25 MPH LOOK LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START SUBSIDING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARING THE
REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
RIDGING WILL BUILD BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BE WEAK UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY AIR MASS. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE THE NYC METRO. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
INLAND AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MOST ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S IN THE NYC METRO. THE LI PINE BARRENS
SHOULD ALSO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES, WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. SOME PATCHY FROST HAS BEEN INCLUDED
HERE FOR NOW, BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IS LOW FOR ANY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US ON FRIDAY.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY SETTING UP
A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD SEND A
WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOWER LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS POPS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED AROUND
20 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE DAY, BUT OVERALL
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NYC, NE NJ, AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD RISE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOW-80S.
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
* AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER INTO SUNDAY UNDER BRIEF HIGH
PRESSURE.
* ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS KEEPS
US WARM- SECTORED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION. LOWS WILL MUCH WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A RESULT,
IN THE MID-50S TO UPPER-40S. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY IN THE LOW-80S TO 70S. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THAT MAY CHANGE BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY TRACK INTO EASTERN QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY. PREVIOUSLY, THERE WAS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE
COLD FRONT TIMING, WITH SOME GUIDANCE BRINGING IT IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND OTHER GUIDANCE BRINGING THE COLD FRONT IN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EVEN MONDAY NIGHT. NOW THE 12Z GFS/GDPS/ECMWF ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BY OR DURING SUNDAY
MORNING. IT APPEARS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL HELP PUSH THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH AND TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE 13Z DETERMINISTIC NBM WAS
STILL IN FAVOR OF THE LATER TIMING OF THE FRONT, SO BLENDED IN
SOME NBM 50TH FOR HIGHS TO STEER AWAY FROM THIS BIAS.
THIS BRINGS SUNDAY'S HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 60S. ITS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE, ALTHOUGH SMALLER NOW, THAT
THE FRONT COULD COME IN LATER THAN SUNDAY MORNING. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR, SUCH AS WHAT THE 12Z ICON THINKS, WOULD LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY THAT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
PWATS CLIMB TO 1.4-1.5" AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING
AND EARLY NIGHT WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME BEFORE
MOISTURE DROPS FAST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING AND PASSING
COLD FRONT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS FILLED WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY. ALL
AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND BRINGS DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
IN GENERAL, LATE MONDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT US AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TIMING,
PLACEMENT, AND MAGNITUDE STILL VARY. SOME GUIDANCE BRING A LOW
OVER THE AREA, OTHERS HAVE A LOW PASS NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING AT THE COAST ALONG A FRONT. WENT WITH A GENERAL NBM
BLEND FOR THIS TIME FRAME. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY SETTLE IN
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, WHICH WOULD BE TIMED FOR
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY, AND
SETTLES JUST TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY NW WINDS HAVE REMAINED HIGHER, AND LONGER THAN EXPECTED,
AND SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS. GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO END AT THE OUTLYING
TERMINALS AROUND OR JUST AFTER 05Z, WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY ENDING
OR BECOMING MORE OCCASIONAL AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS. WNW
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, AND BACK MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDS AND GUSTS
DIMINISH, WITH THE OUTLYING TERMINALS POSSIBLY LOSING THE GUSTS
AROUND 23Z. AND IN THE METRO AREA GUSTS END BY 02Z FRIDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NW AND N INTERIOR. S WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY NW INTERIOR. SW
WINDS G20-25KT.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR EARLY, THEN SUB VFR LATE DAY AND AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS GUSTS NEARSHORE REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 25 KT AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS, SO WILL CONTINUE THE NON OCEAN ADVISORY UNTIL ITS
EXPIRATION.
GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD
BEGIN SUBSIDING BELOW 25 KT ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS. SCA GUSTS
MAY CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. OCEAN SEAS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT BY DAY BREAK THURSDAY. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING SCA HEADLINES. WINDS MAY STILL
GUST 15-20 KT ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN BUILDING
LATE FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS. WAVES
ON OCEAN WATERS CLIMB TO 6-8 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT, OCEAN WATERS MAY HAVE 5 FT
WAVES LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 5
FT. THEREAFTER, WAVES WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN SPS WILL BE ISSUED THIS EVENING FOR THURSDAY FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY, NEW YORK CITY METRO, AND LONG ISLAND DUE TO
AN ELEVATED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. THIS IS COLLABORATED
WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS AND NY STATE LAND MANAGER DUE TO DRYING
FUELS, GUSTY WNW-NW WINDS 20-25 MPH, AND RH VALUES FALLING TO
25-30 PERCENT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BR/DS/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
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