167
FXUS61 KOKX 172151
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
551 PM EDT THU APR 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE
INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY AND MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS
INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL OF
ANOTHER FRONT FOR THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS
ESTABLISHED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING TO THE
SOUTH DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC COAST. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY COLUMN THROUGHOUT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
LOCATIONS THAT AREN'T AS URBAN. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES. WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT AND WITH A MUCH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP LOOK FOR
WIDESPREAD MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S OUTSIDE OF THE METRO. SOME OF
THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CLOUD VERY WELL GET TO FREEZING.
FROST ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI AM FOR
ZONES THAT HAVE BEGUN THEIR GROWING SEASON. IN THESE LOCATIONS
THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MIDDLE 30S WITH CALM WINDS
ALLOWING FOR FROST FORMATION.
WITH THE HIGH GETTING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
GET ESTABLISHED QUICKLY. TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL NOTICE A RAMP UP WITH A WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH. INTO
LOWER QUEENS / BROOKLYN / SO. NASSAU ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON SOME WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH AS A COASTAL NEAR SFC
AMBROSE TYPE JET ATTEMPTS TO GET GOING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
DISTINCT WEST TO EAST TEMPERATURE LINE OF DEMARCATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COOLER 50S FOR EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS, WITH THE
WESTERN HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ FLIRTING WITH OR GETTING TO 70. SOME
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH MORE
OF AN ADVECTIVE SET UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER / WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND, WITH MORE OF
A BREEZE CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND WHERE A WIND
OFF THE COLDER OCEAN WILL BE ABSENT ARE GOING TO LIKELY RISE WITH
REGARD TO TEMPERATURES. SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS, AND FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO 50 OR IN THE LOWER 50S.
DEW POINT READINGS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE LIKELY TO
GET INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ON SATURDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG SYNOPTIC SW FLOW REGIME.
THICKNESSES (1000-500MB) WILL GET TOWARDS 564 DM. THE BIG QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH OF A WESTERLY DOMINANT COMPONENT WILL THERE BE TO THE
WINDS. JUST A SLIGHT 20 DEGREE VARIANCE WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD FOR THE MORE EASTERN AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. NBM
TENDS TO NOT BE VERY USEFUL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE COLD OCEAN
AND WITH THIS TYPE OF WIND SET UP. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
EVERYWHERE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S WEST. MAY
BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR EASTERN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT THIS CAN BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN. IN ANY EVENT
SATURDAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD
WARMTH. MIDDLE 80S FOR MAX TEMPS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES COULD BE
APPROACHING FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATE STATIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION BY A FEW DEGREES. IN ANY EVENT
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM. AT THIS POINT SATURDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST APPEARS TO UNDERGO SOME WEAKENING
AND RUNS INTO STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
NOT PROGRESSING FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO REACH THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BECOME A
BIT SUPPRESSED SATURDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO SWING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIFT WITH THE FRONT AS IT
COMES THROUGH, BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR SUNDAY
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL STILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S COMPARED TO THE 70S
AND 80S THAT ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY. THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL SET UP A SE
FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER AND LARGELY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS ARE INITIALLY LOW MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT INCREASE ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWER CHANCES COINCIDE
WITH A BIT BETTER FORCING AS A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DRY AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT START RISING AND ANY LARGER SCALE SUPPORT MOVES WELL
NE OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST SPOTS EXCEPT PORTIONS OF NE
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE.
RIDGING RETURNS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELING
DIFFERS ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
AND MOISTURE RETURN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS CURRENTLY ONLY DEPICTING
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA TNGT, THEN S OF THE REGION FRI.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS AROUND 290 TRUE DECREASE AFT 23Z. LGT/CALM FLOW TNGT BECOMES
SSW/S ON FRI, WITH INCREASING SPEEDS THRU THE DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS
AOA 20KT POSSIBLE AFT 18Z S CSTL ARPTS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION POSSIBLE THRU 00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
REST OF FRIDAY: VFR. S WINDS 20-30KT. LLWS AFT 00Z WITH 50KT AT 2KFT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFT 18Z. SW WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 30KT.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR EARLY, THEN SUB VFR LATE DAY AND AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: BECOMING VFR WITH W WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY AND A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH GETS
OFFSHORE THE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THUS, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR THE
WESTERN NEAR SHORE WATERS AND ALSO A PORTION OF THE WESTERN OCEAN
WATERS AS AN AMBROSE JET ATTEMPTS TO GET GOING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT, POTENTIALLY UP TO 30 KT AT THE SHORELINE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOST NEARSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT WHERE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AND MORE
MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DUE TO COLDER WATERS.
DURING FRIDAY EVENING SEAS GET CLOSER TO 5 FT WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS
EXPECTED TO LAST OUT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS DURING
SATURDAY.
S SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO SCA SEAS ON
THE OCEAN. THE SWELLS SUBSIDE SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SOME LINGERING 5
FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF MORICHES INLET. CONDITIONS
WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN SPS CONTINUES DUE TO AN ELEVATED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, THE NEW
YORK CITY METRO, AND LONG ISLAND. THIS WAS COLLABORATED WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS AND NY STATE LAND MANAGER DUE TO DRYING FUELS.
FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES
OR PRODUCTS WITH MARGINAL FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. JUST AS THE WINDS PICK UP RH LEVELS WILL ATTEMPT TO RISE
SOME FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL FIRE SPREAD
APPEARS TO BE SHORT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JE/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS
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