152
FXUS61 KOKX 180524
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
124 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THEN MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY
AND MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
FOLLOWS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER FRONT FOR
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
FOR THIS UPDATE, TEMPERATURES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA
WITH READINGS AROUND 60 IN THE NYC METRO, AND THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO COME UP INTO THE 30S
AND EVEN 40 IN SPOTS ALONG THE COAST. AS WINDS DROP OFF AND TAKE
ON A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW THEY WILL DROP. STILL HAVE A FROST
ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LI AND MUCH OF COASTAL CT, BUT THESE AREAS
ARE BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THERE
SHOULD STILL BE GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING SO NO CHANGES
PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT GETS ESTABLISHED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING TO THE SOUTH DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER MID
ATLANTIC COAST. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY COLUMN
THROUGHOUT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEGREE
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE LOCATIONS THAT AREN'T AS URBAN.
USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES. WITH DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND WITH A MUCH BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD MIDDLE AND UPPER
30S OUTSIDE OF THE METRO. SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD VERY WELL GET TO FREEZING. FROST ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE
FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI AM FOR ZONES THAT HAVE BEGUN THEIR
GROWING SEASON. IN THESE LOCATIONS THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF MIDDLE 30S WITH CALM WINDS ALLOWING FOR FROST FORMATION.
WITH THE HIGH GETTING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY THE RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO
GET ESTABLISHED QUICKLY. TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON COASTAL
LOCATIONS WILL NOTICE A RAMP UP WITH A WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH. INTO
LOWER QUEENS / BROOKLYN / SO. NASSAU ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON SOME WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 MPH AS A COASTAL NEAR SFC
AMBROSE TYPE JET ATTEMPTS TO GET GOING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
DISTINCT WEST TO EAST TEMPERATURE LINE OF DEMARCATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COOLER 50S FOR EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS, WITH THE
WESTERN HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ FLIRTING WITH OR GETTING TO 70. SOME
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH MORE
OF AN ADVECTIVE SET UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER / WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. CLOUDS AND A SOUTHERLY WIND, WITH MORE OF
A BREEZE CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND WHERE A WIND
OFF THE COLDER OCEAN WILL BE ABSENT ARE GOING TO LIKELY RISE WITH
REGARD TO TEMPERATURES. SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS, AND FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO 50 OR IN THE LOWER 50S.
DEW POINT READINGS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE LIKELY TO
GET INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ON SATURDAY THE REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG SYNOPTIC SW FLOW REGIME.
THICKNESSES (1000-500MB) WILL GET TOWARDS 564 DM. THE BIG QUESTION
IS HOW MUCH OF A WESTERLY DOMINANT COMPONENT WILL THERE BE TO THE
WINDS. JUST A SLIGHT 20 DEGREE VARIANCE WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE
IN THE WORLD FOR THE MORE EASTERN AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS.
FOR NOW DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE. NBM
TENDS TO NOT BE VERY USEFUL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE COLD OCEAN
AND WITH THIS TYPE OF WIND SET UP. LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
EVERYWHERE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S WEST. MAY
BE A BIT TOO COOL FOR EASTERN MOST LOCATIONS, BUT THIS CAN BE FINE
TUNED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND NEW GUIDANCE COMES IN. IN ANY EVENT
SATURDAY WILL BE BY FAR THE WARMEST DAY IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD
WARMTH. MIDDLE 80S FOR MAX TEMPS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS NOT COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES COULD BE
APPROACHING FOR SOME OF THE CLIMATE STATIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION BY A FEW DEGREES. IN ANY EVENT
IT WILL BE QUITE WARM. AT THIS POINT SATURDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY AS
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST APPEARS TO UNDERGO SOME WEAKENING
AND RUNS INTO STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
NOT PROGRESSING FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO REACH THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BECOME A
BIT SUPPRESSED SATURDAY NIGHT. A CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO SWING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO LIFT WITH THE FRONT AS IT
COMES THROUGH, BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS FOR SUNDAY
COMPARED TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL STILL RUN ABOVE
NORMAL, BUT ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S COMPARED TO THE 70S
AND 80S THAT ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY.
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY. THE RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY WILL SET UP A SE
FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER AND LARGELY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS ARE INITIALLY LOW MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT INCREASE ONCE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWER CHANCES COINCIDE
WITH A BIT BETTER FORCING AS A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DRY AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT START RISING AND ANY LARGER SCALE SUPPORT MOVES WELL
NE OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY PUSH BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST SPOTS EXCEPT PORTIONS OF NE
NJ AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE LOW 70S ARE POSSIBLE.
RIDGING RETURNS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN
REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AT SOME POINT THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELING
DIFFERS ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LIFT
AND MOISTURE RETURN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS CURRENTLY ONLY DEPICTING
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME RANGE. TEMPERATURE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THEN OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SW
FRIDAY EVENING.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION, WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST OF THE AREA TERMINALS. EXPECT THESE
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SSW WINDS RAMP UP
FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUST TO AROUND 25
KT. SOME OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS RIGHT ALONG THE WATER, KJFK,
KBDR, AND KGON MAY SEE LESS GUSTINESS. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS
END AROUND 00Z-02Z SATURDAY. ALSO, A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVER THE REGION AROUND 00Z SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD OF SW
LLWS WITH WIND SPEEDS 45-50KT AT 2KFT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL AT KJFK FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20KT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFT 18Z. SW
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KT.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR EARLY, THEN SUB VFR LATE DAY AND AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: BECOMING VFR WITH W WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY AND A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH GETS
OFFSHORE THE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THUS, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR THE
WESTERN NEAR SHORE WATERS AND ALSO A PORTION OF THE WESTERN OCEAN
WATERS AS AN AMBROSE JET ATTEMPTS TO GET GOING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KT, POTENTIALLY UP TO 30 KT AT THE SHORELINE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOST NEARSHORE WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT WHERE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BE CLOSER TO 20 KT AND MORE
MARGINAL IN TERMS OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA DUE TO COLDER WATERS.
DURING FRIDAY EVENING SEAS GET CLOSER TO 5 FT WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS
EXPECTED TO LAST OUT ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT WINDS AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS DURING
SATURDAY.
S SWELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO SCA SEAS ON
THE OCEAN. THE SWELLS SUBSIDE SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SOME LINGERING 5
FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF MORICHES INLET. CONDITIONS
WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
FOR FRIDAY, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES OR
PRODUCTS WITH MARGINAL FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL
BE MARGINAL FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
JUST AS THE WINDS PICK UP RH LEVELS WILL ATTEMPT TO RISE SOME
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANY WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL FIRE SPREAD APPEARS TO BE
SHORT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ010>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DS/DW
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS
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