979
FXUS61 KOKX 021832
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
232 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY
MOVES WITHIN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT WILL STALL. A LARGE
CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A WARM FRONT GETS FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE REGION
GETTING COMPLETELY INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING LOW.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST.
THERE SOME CAPE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS, HOWEVER THERE IS
SOME CAPPING WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME SUBTLE WARM ADVECTION
IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT / PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. BASICALLY HOLDING POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST.
THUS, HAVE GONE MORE WITH LOW COVERAGE / ISOLATED WORDING.
PERHAPS INTERIOR CT HAS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF HAVING A
STORM INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS PER MOST CAMS, BUT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED. SPC
MESOANALYSIS HAS INDICATED SLIGHTLY MORE CAPE THAN ANTICIPATED
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON JUST UPSTREAM INTO SE PA AND W / SW NJ.
THUS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON RADAR FOR ANY QUICK
POPPING WIDELY SCATTERED TO MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION.
FOR THIS UPDATE DID BUMP UP TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AS SOME SPOTS HAVE EXCEEDED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS. INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE NYC / NE NJ
METRO WILL BE WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HERE ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
NEAR 70 TO 80 EXCEPT MORE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE COMMUNITIES.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND EVENTUALLY
STALLS OUT. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY
WITHIN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY THIS WEEKEND.
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL HELP ESTABLISH A MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY WILL BE
HIGHER AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE DAY, BUT
ALSO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE REGION. KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST BUT
PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER FOR SATURDAY AND LOWER FOR
SUNDAY. WARMEST DAYS OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN 70S TO 80S FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
AS THE MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW APPROACHES, AHEAD OF IT, SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS WITH ASSOCIATED POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. SOME
ENHANCEMENT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER TO
PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO MORE SHEAR. SPC HAS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN, POSSIBLY WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUOUS S/SE FLOW THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL ADVECT A
CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC,
RESULTING IN OVERCAST SKIES AND PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WHEN IT IS NOT RAINING, THERE MAY BE AMPLE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THERE TO BE ISOLATED TO
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IN ANY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
THAT FORMS, MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAIN NATURE OF A SPINNING BUT NEARLY
STATIONARY CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, IT REMAINS ESPECIALLY
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY PERIODS OF MORE PERSISTENT OR HEAVIER
RAINFALL OR THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME, GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO
SUGGEST THAT THE SUNDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAY HAVE THE
BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO ALLOW FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
STEADIER TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IN FUTURE
RUNS. WPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AREAS WHICH
MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION AT ANY GIVEN TIME. LOCALLY
UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES ISN'T RULED OUT, THOUGH THIS ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL IS OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, GENERALLY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DESPITE AMPLE CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE TIMEFRAME SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS EACH DAY GENERALLY
IN THE 60S, POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER FOR THE NYC METRO. LOWS EACH NIGHT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S, COURTESY OF THE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DROP SLOWLY SE
THROUGH SATURDAY, STALLING NEAR OR JUST NW OF THE TERMINALS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR
ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TIME, BUT
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT KSWF FROM 20Z-24Z SATURDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL BE S/SW THIS AFTERNOON 10-15KT WITH G20-25KT. WINDS
THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING AND IN SOME CASES
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. S WINDS WILL THEN RAMP BACK UP
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
KJFK MAY BE SUSTAINED FOR A TIME AROUND 20KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR AT KJFK FROM 09Z-12Z
TIMEFRAME.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING: SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. S WINDS
G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS/TSTMS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS.
MONDAY: SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND EXPECTED.
E-NE WINDS G20-25KT.
TUESDAY: SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND EXPECTED.
SE WINDS G15-20KT.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCAS REMAIN THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THIS MAY BE MORE OF
A MARGINAL SCA WHERE GUSTS AND SEAS WILL BE NEAR BUT AT TIMES
MAY SETTLE JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON THE OCEAN. WAVEWATCH
DOES HAVE 5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING FOR PARTS OF THE OCEAN TONIGHT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 30-35 KT JUST ABOVE INVERSION AND
THINK THIS COULD BE PARTIALLY MIXED DOWN WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS.
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE SCA.
MORE SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY ON THE OCEAN.
HOWEVER, WANT TO SEE HOW WELL CONDITIONS VERIFY WITH FORECAST
TODAY BEFORE CHANGING OR POTENTIALLY EXTENDING THE MARINE
HEADLINES.
NON-OCEAN ZONES REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MAY GET
PRETTY CLOSE TO SCA THRESHOLDS FOR WINDS ON SATURDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAVES
SUBSIDE AND GUSTS LARGELY DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SUNDAY.
INCREASINGLY S/SE FLOW ON MONDAY MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR SCA GUSTS FOR
ALL THE WATERS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN NEARING 5 FEET ONCE
AGAIN.
HYDROLOGY
RAIN THIS WEEKEND WILL BE HIGHER NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AND LOWER
ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS.
LONG DURATION RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL, POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE FLASH FLOODING
ISN'T EXPECTED, MINOR URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT
ANY POINT SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...JE/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page