260
FXUS61 KOKX 040035
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
835 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK,
BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY LINGER NEARBY INTO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS DISCONTINUED EARLIER AS THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN TURNED OVER FOR THE MOST PART, AS ANY
LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE OF THE MORE ORDINARY
VARIETY AND BE SUB-SEVERE.
SHOWER AND MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS
MAINLY NW SECTIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR A WHILE, BEFORE
ACTIVITY WANES LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH CONVECTION WANING DURING THE OVERNIGHT, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE EARLIER
STEADIER / HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED.
LOW TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 60S IN NYC AND NE NJ, AND INTO
THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ON SUNDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED SETS UP BETWEEN
THE LOW TO THE WEST AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. INSTABILITY
STILL APPEARS RATHER LIMITED, SO THINKING THE THREAT OF THUNDER
WILL BE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S, AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AN ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SPINS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
STEER ATLANTIC MOISTURE ONSHORE.
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THE ENTIRE TIMEFRAME, BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN
PERSIST THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY AND
FORCING MAKE FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITHIN THE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME. RELATIVELY HIGHEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY THRU TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY EXITS EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY LINGERING
NEARBY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
LOW GOING INTO LATE WEEK.
OVERALL QPF OF A COUPLE OF INCHES, IN GENERAL, APPEARS LIKELY,
THOUGH THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT SHOULD HELP MITIGATE MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAIL.
TEMPERATURES AVERAGE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE LOWERING OF CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME, HAVE OPTED TO BE SLOWER WITH LOWERING CATEGORIES
INTO SUNDAY, BUT ULTIMATELY THE TREND WILL BE FOR LOWERING
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZES HAVE RESULTED IN WINDS ANYWHERE
FROM WESTERLY, BACKING TO NORTHERLY. WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY S TO SE
BY MIDNIGHT AT AROUND 10KT OR LESS. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE EASTERLY
TOWARD DAYBREAK.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS AT KTEB AND KEWR MAY BE MOSTLY WESTERLY UNTIL 01-02Z. STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER EXPECTED. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS. E WINDS G15-20KT.
TUESDAY: SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SE WINDS G15-20KT DAY INTO EARLY EVE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE OCEAN UNTIL 6 AM, WITH SEAS
MAINLY 4 TO 6 FT ON A LONG FETCH S FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT AT
TIMES. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH MORE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT AT
TIMES FOR A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
OCEAN SEAS LIKELY RUN NEAR 5 FT MONDAY THRU TUESDAY, WITH SCA
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE UNLIKELY DURING THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
A MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD RISK EXISTS FOR TONIGHT FOR INLAND AREAS
NW OF NYC, AS RAIN / TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MOST OF THE IMPACTS
SHOULD BE AT NUISANCE LEVEL, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOOD EVENT.
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK. THERE COULD BE
TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THAT RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING FOR EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IN LOW LYING, URBAN, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. THE OVERALL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...20/DR
NEAR TERM...JE/20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...20/DR
HYDROLOGY...20/DR
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