771
FXUS61 KOKX 080144
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 PM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, PRECEDED BY A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY SAG ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, STALLING NEAR
OF JUST NORTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY BY EVENING. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
DRIER WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SOME
SPRINKLES MAY BE FELT IN SOUTHERN CT THROUGH MIDNIGHT, BUT NO
MEASURABLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED.
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY STALLS TO
THE NORTH OF NYC THURSDAY. FRONT HAS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WE'RE EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
DAY, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE LATE THU AFTERNOON IN NE
NJ, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND EVEN NYC. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
WEAK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COASTAL SEA BREEZES THU AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1-2" THU NIGHT INTO FRI, PERHAPS UP TO 3"
IN PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY.
* URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE FRI AM COMMUTE
BUT RIVERS/STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM MID ATLANTIC TO NEAR NYC THU NIGHT
INTO FRI BEFORE SLOWLY HEADING INTO NEW ENGLAND SAT, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL TO REGION. ANOTHER BLOCKY PATTERN
TAKING SHAPE AS UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND EVENTUALLY CAPTURES SURFACE LOW, RESULTING IN SLOW
IMPROVEMENT (DRYING) BY SATURDAY.
PATTERN CERTAINLY FAVORS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH PLENTY OF
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL BRING
DEEP MOISTURE INTO NORTHEAST. THAT SAID, WE'RE NOT SEEING A LOT
OF SIGNALS FOR EXCESSIVE (FLOODING) RAINFALL WITH MANY OF THE
ENSEMBLE PARAMETERS WITHIN 90TH PERCENTILE, THOUGH PWATS OF UP
TO 1.5" ARE CERTAINLY ANOMALOUS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AREA TO
KEEP AN EYE ON IS NEAR CATSKILLS (ORANGE COUNTY) WHERE WE COULD
SEE TOTALS OF 2-3" IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS SHOW SOME RISES BUT ALL WITHIN THEIR
BANKS AND DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL, GLOBAL AND CAM ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR 2"+ RAINFALL ARE WITHIN FFG VALUES.
NONETHELESS, WE DO EXPECT TO SEE POCKETS OF USUAL URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING AROUND TIME OF FRIDAY AM COMMUTE. GIVEN ALL
OF THIS, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME BUT IF
THINGS TREND UPWARDS WE WOULD NEED TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH
FOR FOR PARTS OF THE REGION (ESPECIALLY ORANGE COUNTY).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRIER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE AFTER SATURDAY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF OVER GULF COAST. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO
NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT STALLS NEAR OR JUST NORTHWEST OF NYC
THURSDAY.
MAINLY A VFR FORECAST WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN
SHOWERS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY FOR THE 30H TAF SITES. PROB30 MENTIONED
IN THE NYC, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND KBDR TERMINALS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, SOME MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT THE 30H TAF SITES AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
SW/S WINDS LESS THAN 10KT THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
N/NE BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING. S/SE
WINDS TO DEVELOP AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS LATE MORNING WITH
SOME LOCATIONS AT TIMES CLOSER TO A TRUE SEABREEZE. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINLY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT GETS
TOMORROW EVENING, BUT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STALL NEAR OR
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY VARY
FROM E TO N/NE AT 10KT OR LESS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
EXPECT MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TIMING VARYING
BY 1-2 HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRI. IT'S POSSIBLE WE SEE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON AT
LEAST OCEAN WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH REGION FRI
INTO SAT ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIND AND
SEA CONDITIONS STAYING BELOW SCA.
HYDROLOGY
ODDS FAVOR A WIDESPREAD 1-2" RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT LOCALLY THERE COULD BE SOME 2-3" TOTALS NEAR
CATSKILLS INCLUDING ORANGE COUNTY. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL,
FLOOD IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR AND LIMITED TO USUAL
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, BUT IF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER, WE MAY NEED FLOOD WATCHES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
(ESPECIALLY ORANGE COUNTY).
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...DR/JT/99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...99
HYDROLOGY...99
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