761
FXUS61 KOKX 081944
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ACROSS MAINLY WRN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVE. FALLING HEIGHTS COMBINES
WITH INSTABILITY AND NOW RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL HELP TO FUEL
THE SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY. THE MODELING INDICATES STORM MOTION
GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A FLOOD THREAT INTO
THIS EVE WHERE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
AS AN UPR LOW CURRENTLY OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DROP SWD TNGT,
LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP NWD EARLY
IN THE MRNG.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CT, NY NORTH OF NYC, AND NRN
NJ UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. THIS CAPTURES THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD FLASH
FLOODING THIS EVE, AND THE ADDITIONAL RAIN FOR FRI AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO WRAP UP. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS TNGT, PARTICULARLY
ERN CSTL AREAS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS
APPEAR TO BE LIMITING FACTORS HOWEVER, SO IT WAS KEPT OUT OF THE
FCST FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRI,
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE LATE FRI NGT.
LOW PRES LIKELY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA, WITH A DRY SLOT POTENTIALLY LIMITING AMOUNTS FROM SRN NJ
THRU NYC AND INTO LI. LI COULD BE TRICKY HOWEVER, WITH SHWRS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH COULD OVERPERFORM WITH
CONVECTION ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AND INVOF
THE WARM FRONT. ANY CHANGE IN TRACK OF THE LOW WILL ALTER THE
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION FOR THIS EVENT.
MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED, SO THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS SYS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RAIN ATTM. WIDESPREAD
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME MAINLY MINOR
RIVER FLOODING, ARE THE EXPECTED PRIMARY IMPACTS IN THE WATCH
AREA.
COOLER TEMPS ON FRI WITH THE RAIN AND THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED
THERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH THE LOW EXITING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ITS WAKE AND GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS.
THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES BY LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT STALLS NEARBY TONIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MAINLY A VFR FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN TERMINALS
(KSWF, KHPN, KTEB, AND KEWR). EXPECT AMENDMENTS FOR THESE TERMINALS
FOR TSRA / SHRA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVY SHOWERS. PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS FALL TO MVFR TOWARDS 04-06Z. IFR CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT TOWARDS 09-12Z. IFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH POCKETS OF LIFR POSSIBLE FOR KGON.
WINDS WILL LIKELY VARY FROM N/NE TO E UNDER 10KT INTO THIS EVENING,
AND AROUND OR UNDER 5 KT AT MOST TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. E WINDS INCREASE
TO UP TO 10 KT LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
MULTIPLE WIND SHIFTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH TIMING
VARYING BY 1-2 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOR KEWR AND KTEB.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: MAINLY IFR AND MVFR IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS.
LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS BUILD ON FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS W OF THE WATERS AND THEN
TRACKS ACROSS LI. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE OCEAN FOR THIS,
LASTING THRU FRI NGT. WINDS INCREASE ALL AREAS LATE FRI NGT.
SPEEDS ARE MRGNL SO DID NOT ISSUE A SCA ON ANY OF THE PROTECTED
WATERS FOR THIS.
SCA CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR MARGINAL 25KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.
HYDROLOGY
AROUND 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THRU FRI
NGT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE SLOW MOVING SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA INTO THIS EVE. THE RFC ENSEMBLES INDICATE MINOR
RIVER FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS CT. FFG IS LOWEST ACROSS NJ INTO
NY. FOR THESE REASONS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
AREAS N OF NYC AND LI, INCLUDING THE NRN NJ ZONES. SOME AREAS OF
MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THE WATCH AREA AS WELL, BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOOD RISK
IN LOW ATTM.
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT
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