422
FXUS61 KOKX 090558
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST
ANALYSIS HAS IT FROM SE CT ACROSS CENTRAL LI AND SOUTH OF THE
NYC METRO. POCKETS OF SHOWERS RESIDE TO THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY,
ACROSS SW CT, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND NE NJ. AIRMASS HAS
STABILIZED AND THE RAINFALL INS GENERALLY LIGHT.
INTENSITY LOOKS TO PICK BACK UP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING AS AN UPR
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO DROP
SWD TNGT AND LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC.
THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CT, NY NORTH OF NYC, AND PORTIONS
OF NRN NJ UNTIL LATE FRI NGT. THIS CAPTURES THE CHANCE FOR
ISOLD FLASH FLOODING THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW BEGINS TO WRAP UP.
SEE THE HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS TNGT, PARTICULARLY
ERN CSTL AREAS. INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHWRS
APPEAR TO BE LIMITING FACTORS HOWEVER, SO IT WAS KEPT OUT OF THE
FCST FOR NOW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRI,
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM SW TO NE LATE FRI NGT.
LOW PRES LIKELY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA, WITH A DRY SLOT POTENTIALLY LIMITING AMOUNTS FROM SRN NJ
THRU NYC AND INTO LI. LI COULD BE TRICKY HOWEVER, WITH SHWRS AND
TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH COULD OVERPERFORM WITH
CONVECTION ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE AND INVOF
THE WARM FRONT. ANY CHANGE IN TRACK OF THE LOW WILL ALTER THE
RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION FOR THIS EVENT.
MOST OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED, SO THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS SYS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RAIN ATTM. WIDESPREAD
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME MAINLY MINOR
RIVER FLOODING, ARE THE EXPECTED PRIMARY IMPACTS IN THE WATCH
AREA.
COOLER TEMPS ON FRI WITH THE RAIN AND THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED
THERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH THE LOW EXITING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ITS WAKE AND GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS.
THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES BY LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES TRACK ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRAGGED EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT, EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
WITH POCKETS OF LIFR ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC, WHERE THERE IS PROB30 18Z-22Z.
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING NEARLY
OVERHEAD THE NYC METRO, OPTED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR
KJFK AND KLGA FROM 14-18Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NNE/E AT 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT, THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KT AT THE COAST ON FRIDAY. NYC AND LI
TERMINALS COULD BECOME SE FOR TIME IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. THERE ALSO COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
15-18KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST WITH WINDS IN ITS WAKE BECOMING W
OR NW AND INCREASING IN SPEED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND WIND SHIFTS. WINDS COULD GO SE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KJFK. A FEW GUSTS 15-18KT POSSIBLE.
THERE IS LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FROM 14-18Z FOR
KJFK AND KLGA. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT KTEB AND KEWR.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS, MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS BUILD ON FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE WATERS AND THEN
TRACKS ACROSS LI. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE OCEAN FOR THIS,
LASTING THRU FRI NGT. WINDS INCREASE ALL AREAS LATE FRI NGT.
SPEEDS ARE MRGNL SO DID NOT ISSUE A SCA ON ANY OF THE PROTECTED
WATERS FOR THIS.
SCA CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR MARGINAL 25KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.
HYDROLOGY
AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
THRU FRI NGT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE RFC ENSEMBLES INDICATE MINOR RIVER
FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS CT. FFG IS LOWEST ACROSS NJ INTO NY.
FOR THESE REASONS, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS N
OF NYC AND LI, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NRN NJ ZONES. SOME AREAS
OF MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA AS WELL, BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD RISK IN LOW ATTM.
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...JMC/JT/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT
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