933
FXUS61 KOKX 090722
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
322 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOAKING RAINFALL TO
THE AREA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
* 1-2" TOTAL ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE.
* A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERGEN, PASSAIC, LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY, SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, AND LONG ISLAND.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DROP TOWARDS THE AREA THIS MORNING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AS A LOW AT THE SURFACE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION,
OVERSPREADING WEST TO EAST. SOME OF THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN WITH
HIGHER RAIN TOTALS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO
BE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM OUR
SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO MORE SOAKING RAIN IN AREAS NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF NYC.
BY LATE AFTERNOON, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO NEAR OR OVER NYC. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOST RAIN TAPERING AT THIS TIME OVER NE NJ AND NYC WITH
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SPOTTY SHOWERS LEFT OVER. MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE AT THIS TIME NORTH OF THE LOW, NORTH OF NYC.
AS THE LOW POSITIONS ITSELF OVER NYC THIS AFTERNOON, A STRONG 30-40
KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW, FUELING STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BANDED HEAVIER
RAINFALL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW WITH SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, THE LOCATION OF
THIS BAND VARIES AMONG THE 00Z HREF CAMS, MPAS AND RRFS DUE TO
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT POSITIONS OF THE LOW. THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE A
HEAVIER BAND OF RAINFALL MAY SET UP ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY AND EXTEND
INTO SE CT LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE
AGREES SETTING THIS UP IN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT, SOME STILL
BRING THIS BAND A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO NASSAU AND PARTS OF
NEW HAVEN OR EASTERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES. IT SEEMS AS THE LOW
SPINS OVER NYC, EAST OF THE LOW, THIS BAND MAY MOVE SLOWER FOR A
2-4 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE IT BEGINS TO QUICKEN ITS EXIT,
PROGRESSING FASTER TO THE EAST AS THE LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTH
AND EAST OF NYC LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS HAPPENS WHEN THE
SURFACE LOW ESSENTIALLY GETS CAPTURED AND BECOMES STACKED WITH
THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL, EXPECTED RAINFALL THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT WILL BE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN. HIGHEST
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON LONG ISLAND, S CT AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. SOME ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF 3-4" IS
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. RAINFALL RATES MAINLY LOOK TO
RANGE 0.5"/HR TO 1.0"/HR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, PEAK
RATES IN SOME STRONGER BANDED RAINFALL OR CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE BETWEEN 1.5-2"/HR IN ISOLATED
SPOTS. THE 00Z HREF 40-KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF RAIN RATES
GREATER THAN 1"/HR PEAK AT 70% ACROSS MOST OF NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
COUNTY, WHILE 10-KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES PEAK AROUND 50-60%
MAINLY FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR BERGEN & PASSAIC COUNTIES, THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND FOR S CT. SUFFOLK AND NASSAU COUNTIES ON
LONG ISLAND HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FLOOD WATCH, BASED ON TRENDS IN
THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HYDROLOGIC RIVER AND STREAM ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF NYC AND INTO S CT GIVEN ALREADY WET
SOILS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME
STREAMS COULD REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE. AREAS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
AND LONG ISLAND MAY SEE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
WHEREVER THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS SET UP COULD SEE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE MET IN THESE SPOTS. FLASH FLOODING WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED
TO URBAN, POOR-DRAINAGE, AND LOW-LYING TROUBLE SPOTS, SHOULD IT
OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
RAINFALL WILL TAPER INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA. ONLY ISOLATED OR SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN NORTHERN
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NY & CT IN OUR CWA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE LOW EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO ITS WAKE AND GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS.
BREEZY NW/WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY DUE TO
AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE FROM LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTING NORTHEAST.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER-60S TO
LOW-70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF
TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES BY LATER TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY
AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES TRACK ALONG IT. THE FRONT WILL BE
DRAGGED EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT, EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR
WITH POCKETS OF LIFR ON FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC, WHERE THERE IS PROB30 18Z-22Z.
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSING NEARLY
OVERHEAD THE NYC METRO, OPTED TO INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR
KJFK AND KLGA FROM 14-18Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NNE/E AT 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT, THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KT AT THE COAST ON FRIDAY. NYC AND LI
TERMINALS COULD BECOME SE FOR TIME IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. THERE ALSO COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
15-18KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST WITH WINDS IN ITS WAKE BECOMING W
OR NW AND INCREASING IN SPEED INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND WIND SHIFTS. WINDS COULD GO SE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KJFK. A FEW GUSTS 15-18KT POSSIBLE.
THERE IS LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FROM 14-18Z FOR
KJFK AND KLGA. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT KTEB AND KEWR.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS, MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS BUILD ON FRI AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS S OF THE WATERS AND THEN
TRACKS ACROSS LI. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THE OCEAN FOR THIS. WINDS
INCREASE ALL AREAS LATE FRI NGT. SPEEDS ARE MRGNL SO DID NOT ISSUE A
SCA ON ANY OF THE PROTECTED WATERS FOR THIS.
SCA CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR MARGINAL 25KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA.
HYDROLOGY
1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED
FOR BERGEN & PASSAIC COUNTIES, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND FOR S
CT. SUFFOLK AND NASSAU COUNTIES ON LONG ISLAND HAVE BEEN ADDED TO
THE FLOOD WATCH, BASED ON TRENDS IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HYDROLOGIC
RIVER AND STREAM ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
NYC AND INTO S CT GIVEN ALREADY WET SOILS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGHER
THAN NORMAL. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME STREAMS COULD REACH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE. AREAS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND MAY SEE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. WHEREVER
THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS SET UP COULD SEE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE MET IN
THESE SPOTS. FLASH FLOODING WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO URBAN, POOR-
DRAINAGE, AND LOW-LYING TROUBLE SPOTS, SHOULD IT OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>071-078>081-177-
179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-103-104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
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