457
FXUS61 KOKX 280231
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST, MOVING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, ALONG WITH SOME FORCING MAY
RESULT IN A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT MOST OF
THE MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE REGION WILL REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
ALOFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT A CLOUDY DAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY
INCREASING, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE DAYTIME. PORTIONS OF CT AND LONG ISLAND MAY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, AS THE PRECIPITATION RUNS INTO DRIER
AIR. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
THERE IS A CHANCE INTERIOR CT REACHES THE LOWER 70S IF CLOUD
COVER IS THINNER ACROSS THIS AREA.
RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT POPS TO INCREASE AND
BECOME LIKELY. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER A BIT ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. A FLATTER GUIDANCE GENERALLY BRINGS IN LESS PRECIP
OVERALL AS THE FORCING IS WEAKER, WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS HAVE A BIT MORE PRECIP ALONG. EVEN WITH
THESE DIFFERENCES, QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW, GENERALLY REMAINING
BELOW A HALF INCH, CWA WIDE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 50S AND THURSDAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FULL AMPLITUDE TROUGH, WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW, FROM EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY BUILDS
TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND REMAINS INTO LATE SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH, A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE LAST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. SO A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, DRY
WEATHER RETURNS. FOLLOWED THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS
TRENDED LOWER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW INTO WEDNESDAY.
VFR FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY THE NYC TERMINALS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. IT MAY REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE
EASTERN TERMINALS.
S-SW AROUND 5KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SSE
AT 5 TO 10 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN BECOME ESE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE E WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING AND LOWERING CATEGORIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE LATER
THAN FORECAST. WIND SHIFT COULD ALSO BE DELAYED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: RAIN LIKELY. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, IFR POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE MORNING. E-SE
WINDS G15-20KT AT THE NYC METRO/COASTAL TERMINALS AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS
POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
TSTM. MVFR COND LIKELY, IFR POSSIBLE. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NO CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS WITH THIS UPDATE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. INCREASING SE FLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN A
BIT ON THURSDAY, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
OCEAN SEAS REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT WINDS SHIFTS TO SW TO W AND OCEAN SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. OCEAN SEAS BRIEFLY
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY, THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED SATURDAY NIGHT, AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET WEST
TO EAST DURING SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH 1-2 FT SEAS AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
THE RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT RISK INCREASES TO HIGH FOR THURSDAY
DUE TO A BUILDING SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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