259
FXUS61 KOKX 280729
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
329 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST, MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE EVENING UPDATE. JUST A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, ALONG WITH SOME FORCING MAY RESULT IN A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT MOST OF THE
MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
THE REGION WILL REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING
ALOFT TO THE EAST. EXPECT A CLOUDY DAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY
INCREASING, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE DAYTIME. PORTIONS OF CT AND LONG ISLAND MAY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, AS THE PRECIPITATION RUNS INTO DRIER
AIR. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
THERE IS A CHANCE INTERIOR CT REACHES THE LOWER 70S IF CLOUD
COVER IS THINNER ACROSS THIS AREA.
RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE, WITH LIKELY POP TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER A BIT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. A FLATTER GUIDANCE
GENERALLY BRINGS IN LESS PRECIP OVERALL AS THE FORCING IS
WEAKER, WHILE A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS HAVE A BIT
MORE PRECIP ALONG. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES, QPF AMOUNTS
REMAIN LOW, GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW A HALF INCH, CWA WIDE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND THURSDAY CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FULL AMPLITUDE TROUGH, WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW, FROM EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THURSDAY NIGHT GRADUALLY BUILDS
TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY AND REMAINS INTO LATE SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH A SERIES OF VORT MAXES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH, A SERIES OF LOWS WILL TRACK ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE LAST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. SO A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION, DRY
WEATHER RETURNS. FOLLOWED THE NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS
TRENDED LOWER FOR DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THEN
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT.
VFR MOST OF TODAY AS OVC HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN AT KEWR AS EARLY AS
14Z-15Z, THEN EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO THE NYC METRO AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND POINTS NORTH/EAST DURING THE LATE DAY HOURS.
MVFR CIGS ARRIVE AT THE NYC METROS BY ABOUT 21Z-22Z, WITH IFR
CIGS THERE AND AT KISP/KHPN BY 03Z. FARTHER NORTH/EAST, EXPECT
CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING, WITH IFR AT KBDR/KSWF AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT S FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
BACK SE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS LATE TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. WINDS COULD BACK SE SOONER THAN FCST ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT: RAIN LIKELY WITH IFR COND EXPECTED, EXCEPT MAINLY MVFR
AT KGON.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. IFR COND IN THE MORNING IMPROVE TO
MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON, AND TO VFR LATE AT THE NYC METROS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CIGS LIKELY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
TSTM. MVFR COND LIKELY, IFR POSSIBLE. SW-W WINDS G15-20KT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NO CHANGES TO WINDS AND SEAS WITH THIS UPDATE.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. INCREASING SE FLOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MAY LEAD TO WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR
5 FT ON THE OCEAN. THE FLOW MAY WEAKEN A BIT ON THURSDAY, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
OCEAN SEAS REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT WINDS SHIFTS TO SW TO W AND OCEAN SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. OCEAN SEAS BRIEFLY
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY, THEN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT OCEAN SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO ADVISORY
LEVELS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OCEAN SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED SATURDAY NIGHT, AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FEET WEST
TO EAST DURING SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT OCEAN BEACHES TODAY WITH 1-2
FT SEAS AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. THE RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT RISK INCREASES TO HIGH FOR THURSDAY DUE TO A
BUILDING SOUTHEAST SWELL AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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