112
FXUS61 KOKX 290539
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. IT PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ON ITS WAY TO NEW ENGLAND FOR SATURDAY,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL MEANDER OVER EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST STATES WILL DRIVE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LI LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE
WARM ADVECTION IN A DEEP-LAYERED WSW FLOW ALOFT AND THE THERMAL
FORCING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WILL CONTINUE PRODUCING
LIGHT RAIN INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAIN IN THE MORNING MAY LINGER ACROSS FAR SE CT AND THE TWIN
FORKS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
DRY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING, ESPECIALLY
BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS NYC, NE NJ, AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
WINDS WILL THEN BACK AROUND FROM THE NE IN THE MORNING TO THE
NW IN THE AFTERNOON, DROPPING BELOW 10 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 60S ACROSS CT AND EASTERN LI, TO THE LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE. THIS IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING AND THEN TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID
UP TO UPPER 50S. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE. FOR THE TIME, HAVE KEPT DRY, BUT THERE IS
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN H5 TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
SATURDAY, THEN REMAINING NEARBY ON SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PASSING THROUGH
LATE AT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO HEAD
NORTH, TRACKING THROUGH QUEBEC ON SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
(70-80%) LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE LIMITED IN
PART DUE TO FORECAST PWATS AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES. SEE THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
ALTHOUGH A CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ALOFT FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BOTH DAYS LIKELY REMAIN DRY AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGING THEN KEEPS US DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME POCKETS OF
LIFR AT OUTLYING TERMINALS NW OF NYC. ANY LINGERING VFR/MVFR
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT WILL LOWER TO IFR
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH CEILINGS AND
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES THROUGH DAY BREAK. LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAY BREAK AND SHOULD TAPER OFF BY LATE MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER TO IFR. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH VFR BECOMING LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
BEFORE LOWER TO MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
E-NE FLOW AROUND 10 KT OR LESS TO START EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
COASTAL LOCATIONS COULD SEE WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 10-15 KT
THROUGH 09Z. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TOWARDS THE N AFTER DAY BREAK
AND THEN NNW-NW THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD THEN
BECOME SW-S LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CHANCE AT VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS FOR A TIME 18-22Z. A LIGHT
SW-S FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GET EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE IFR FROM
CEILINGS.
ANY GUSTS WILL BE OCCASIONAL THROUGH 10Z.
TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF BY SEVERAL HOURS INTO
THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CONFIDENCE WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE TONIGHT: MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SW-W WINDS G15-20KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP TO 25KT
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WIND BECOME LIGHT IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A BUILDING SE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SEAS AROUND 5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, LIKELY LINGERING
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET IN THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY. A PERIOD
OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW GUSTING TO 25 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH IN THE MORNING.
SEAS OVER 5 FT ARE ALSO LIKELY SAT INTO SAT NIGHT, WHICH MAY MAY
TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET DURING THE DAYTIME
SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS SO
FAR APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
FORECAST PWATS ARE JUST AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A
LLJ AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH COULD HELP MAXIMIZE THE
POTENTIAL OF THE PWAT VALUES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. ANTICIPATING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, BUT A LOW
THREAT OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXISTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
CAN'T EVEN RULE OUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT
THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND WITH HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. A BUILDING SE SWELL
THURSDAY MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING FOR THESE
LOCATIONS WITH HIGH TIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO A
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE AREA.
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH WITH 1-2 FT SEAS AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS.
THE RISK INCREASES TO HIGH ON THURSDAY DUE TO A BUILDING SEAS
TO 5-6 FT AND SE SWELLS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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