503
FXUS61 KOKX 291512
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1112 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
TODAY AND HEAD EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
STRONGER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY
WILL PASS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN HEAD NORTH INTO
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MEANDER OVER EASTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED MAINLY ACROSS LI AND CT THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY WORK EAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SHUTTING
DOWN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS AWAY FROM AREA.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE LATE AS THE LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
DRY OUT AND A N FLOW 5-10 MPH TAKES HOLD IN THE METRO AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS LATE TODAY SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER
70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST, AND REMAIN IN THE 60S TO THE EAST, A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DEEP LAYER SW FLOW/WAA AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE NYC METRO
AREA AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT, THEN LIKELY POP FROM NYC WEST AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE
FORM THE MID 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S INLAND, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
AS A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY ON FRI, SFC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE SHORTWAVE AND SFC LOW WILL BOTH PASS OVER
THE CWA FRI NIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND A FEW TSTMS ESPECIALLY TO AREAS NW OF NYC FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. AFTER THE LOW MOVES UP INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
SAT, A GUSTY FLOW (W-NW INLAND AND SW ALONG THE COAST) WILL
DEVELOP, BUT WITH CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW, ANOTHER APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE ALOFT, AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY, EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LATE DAY HOURS ESPECIALLY FROM
NYC METRO NORTH/WEST. HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD REACH 70-75.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEEP TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW THAT PASSES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY
NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUIDANCE
SIGNALING A WEAKER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE IS IN RESPONSE TO
A VIGOROUS VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THE NBM HAS INCREASED POPS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY, AS THIS
FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO GET BETTER RESOLVED. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL START BRINING IN SOME COOLER AIR AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH CAPE, IF AT ALL, SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST SATURDAY EVENING. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE AND
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST
WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER
EASTERN CANADA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY DESPITE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH COULD INTRODUCE
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT TIMES BOTH AFTERNOONS. THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD
TOWARDS THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S, BUT
SHOULD SLOWLY START TRENDING MILDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AND THEN SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL BY TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S NEXT WEDNESDAY FOR
MOST SPOTS WITH LOW 80S POSSIBLE IN NE NJ.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SOME POCKETS OF LIFR. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS KJFK WHICH HAS IMPROVED TO MVFR. THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
VFR BECOMING LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINALS BEFORE LOWER
TO IFR OR MVFR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS TO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL THEN BACK
TOWARDS THE N-NW THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SW-S
LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE AT
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS FOR A TIME 18-22Z. A LIGHT SW-S FLOW
SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WIND DIRECTION MAY BECOME VARIABLE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT SHOULD SETTLE TO THE SSW BY THIS EVENING.
TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY SEVERAL
HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY. SW-W WINDS G15-20KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS AT BUOYS 44065 AND 44025 WERE REPORTING 6 AND 7 FT,
RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS 1-2 FT HIGHER ON THAN FORECAST ON THE
OCEAN WATERS. ALSO, NEEDED TO RAISE SEAS ON THE SOUND A BIT WITH
THE CENTRAL SOUND BUOY AROUND 2 FT. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED CHANGE
THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS
WINDS RELAX THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A BUILDING SE SWELL SHOULD KEEP
SEAS 5-6 FT INTO THIS EVENING ON THE OCEAN W OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET, AND FOR MOST OF TONIGHT E OF THERE TO MONTAUK.
SCA COND ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN AND THE FAR ERN
SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS, WITH WSW FLOW INCREASING TO
20-25 KT AND SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO
5-8 FT.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
MAINLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATE
SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS
POSSIBLE FROM NYC NORTH/WEST FRI INTO SAT, WITH THE BULK OF THIS
RAINFALL OCCURRING FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS SO FAR APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED TO MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. FORECAST PW IS
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF A LLJ AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
COULD HELP MAXIMIZE THE POTENTIAL OF THE PW VALUES. ALSO CAN'T
RULE OUT DOWNPOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WATER LEVELS JUST BARELY TOUCHING MINOR
FLOOD BENCHMARKS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS WITH THE NEXT TWO
NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS PER LATEST BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF ETSS,
STOFS, AND THE NYHOPS FORECAST INCLUDE FREEPORT, NEWARK BAY,
AND BRIDGEPORT.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY, AS SE SWELLS BUILD TO
5-6 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...BG/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page