914
FXUS61 KOKX 300302
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1102 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATTER OF WHICH PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST ON FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN HEAD NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A BIT MORE CLEARING THAN FORECAST COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO JUST DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MATCH THIS TREND.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO GET KICKED EASTWARD
TONIGHT AS JET ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW. AT THE SAME
TIME, A DIGGING NORTHERN TROUGH BRANCH DESCENDS ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. BOTH WILL INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THEN THOUGH, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FRONTAL WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, THEN TO THE EAST
BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL THEN BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, SO NOTHING STRONG OR LONG
LASTING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWERS 60S,
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S WITH A FEW BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLY SOME HEAVIER RAIN IN ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW TRACK, WITH A CONSENUS
FORECAST APPROACH TAKING IT JUST EAST OF THE NYC METRO AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRACK WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE, INSTABILITY IS
WEAK, AND PW VALUES ARE NEAR NORMAL. THUS, NOT LOOKING FOR HIGH
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES, NOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL VALUES TO PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN MINOR NUISANCE POOR, DRAINAGE FLOODING. ANY FLASH
FLOOD FLOODING WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE ISOLATED. WPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ AT THIS TIME. NBM (13Z) PROBABILITIES ARE
AROUND 50-60% ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA IS
1.00-1.25" WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO OVER PERIOD OF MORE THAN 6 HOURS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, BUT THIS IS ALSO PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT A ROUND OF MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN, NEITHER
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS FORECAST WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORTWAVE LIFT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD BEING EAST OF THE
CITY AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE SLOW TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER EASTERN
CANADA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DESPITE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SPINNING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH COULD INTRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT TIMES BOTH AFTERNOONS. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD TOWARDS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE POSITION OF A CUTOFF H5 LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HOW IT WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM A COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST MAY PUSH IN BY THE END OF THE DAY, BUT COULD BE
MITIGATED BY THE RESIDUAL RIDGING ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S, BUT
SHOULD SLOWLY START TRENDING MILDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS LOOK TO
REACH THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AND THEN SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. GIVEN PROGGED H8 TEMPERATURES,
HAVE BLENDED DETERMINISTIC NBM WITH THE WARMER 50TH PERCENTILE FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY A SEA BREEZE LIKELY
REACH THE 80S BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VFR EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KSWF
WILL THEN GO IFR CLOSER TO FRIDAY MORNING NOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF LIFR CIGS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
LATE DAY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AGAIN FRIDAY FOR THE NYC TERMINALS
AND KSWF. CONDITIONS COME RIGHT BACK DOWN FRIDAY EVENING WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. THUNDER CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED
OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET FOR THE TAF. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SOME OTHER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE VERY
ISOLATED AND AM NOT EXPECTING ANY LONG DURATION VSBY
RESTRICTIONS SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF.
WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. S/SW TONIGHT
AND S/SE ON FRIDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY SEVERAL
HOURS.
THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND NOT CAUSE ANY
LONG DURATION VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. IFR LIKELY.
SATURDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SW-W
WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, A WEAK GRADIENT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A BUILDING
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATE
SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS
POSSIBLE FROM NYC NORTH/WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS SO FAR APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED TO MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ALSO CAN'T RULE
OUT DOWNPOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ANY ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOLLOWING THE
RECENT NEW MOON IS SEEMING LESS LIKELY AS TIDE VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER AND WEAKER SOUTHERLY WINDS BEING FORECAST AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WATER LEVELS JUST BARELY
TOUCHING MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS WITH THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SE
SWELLS AT AROUND 6 FT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY WITH SE SWELLS LOWERING TO 4 TO 5 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ353.
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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