303
FXUS61 KOKX 300546
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT AND THEN GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATTER OF WHICH PASSES TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST ON FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN HEAD NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, GIVING WAY
TO A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS
FRONTAL WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, THEN TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OR STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL
THEN BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK, SO NOTHING STRONG OR LONG LASTING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWERS 60S,
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH ON FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S WITH A FEW BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
A STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLY SOME HEAVIER RAIN IN ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW TRACK, WITH A CONSENUS
FORECAST APPROACH TAKING IT JUST EAST OF THE NYC METRO AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRACK WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE, INSTABILITY IS
WEAK, AND PW VALUES ARE NEAR NORMAL. THUS, NOT LOOKING FOR HIGH
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES, NOR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL VALUES TO PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN MINOR NUISANCE POOR, DRAINAGE FLOODING. ANY FLASH
FLOOD FLOODING WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE ISOLATED. WPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND NE NJ AT THIS TIME. NBM (13Z) PROBABILITIES ARE
AROUND 50-60% ACROSS THE AREA FOR SEEING MORE THAN AN INCH OF
RAINFALL. FORECAST STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA IS
1.00-1.25" WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO OVER PERIOD OF MORE THAN 6 HOURS.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING, BUT THIS IS ALSO PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT A ROUND OF MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE AGAIN, NEITHER
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING IS FORECAST WITH THIS EVENT. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
BUT A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORTWAVE LIFT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD BEING EAST OF THE
CITY AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL
BE SLOW TO BUILD EASTWARD WITH LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER EASTERN
CANADA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DESPITE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
SPINNING AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH COULD INTRODUCE SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT TIMES BOTH AFTERNOONS. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST TUESDAY ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD TOWARDS
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS.
MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT REGARDING THE POSITION OF A CUTOFF H5 LOW
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HOW IT WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM A COLD
FRONT TO THE WEST MAY PUSH IN BY THE END OF THE DAY, BUT COULD BE
MITIGATED BY THE RESIDUAL RIDGING ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S, BUT
SHOULD SLOWLY START TRENDING MILDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS LOOK TO
REACH THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY AND THEN SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. GIVEN PROGGED H8 TEMPERATURES,
HAVE BLENDED DETERMINISTIC NBM WITH THE WARMER 50TH PERCENTILE FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AREAS UNAFFECTED BY A SEA BREEZE LIKELY
REACH THE 80S BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
VFR TO START WITH CONDITIONS FALLING TO IFR 08-11Z. SOME LOCAL
LIFR POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE
AFTER 13Z WITH MVFR BY 15Z AND VFR AFTER 17Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL
CONDITIONS ONLY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT TERMINALS WITH IFR OR LOWER
RETURNING AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD
BE HEAVY FOR A PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THE THUNDER POTENTIAL AT NYC METRO AND
KSWF FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ALL
TERMINALS. LOW PRESSURE STARTS PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD START BRINGING
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES, BUT RAIN CONTINUES
THROUGH DAY BREAK.
LIGHT S-SSW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME 5-10 KT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SE THIS EVENING AND
THEN E-NE OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE CONDITIONS ONLY FALL TO MVFR AT KEWR
AND KTEB.
TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING MAY BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY FOR LOWERING CONDITIONS, RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
THUNDER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE TONIGHT: IFR WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
SATURDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SW-W
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA FOR SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, A WEAK GRADIENT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A BUILDING
SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE
OCEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATE
SUNDAY AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS
POSSIBLE FROM NYC NORTH/WEST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS SO FAR APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED TO MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ALSO CAN'T RULE
OUT DOWNPOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SINCE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ANY ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOLLOWING THE
RECENT NEW MOON IS SEEMING LESS LIKELY AS TIDE VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER AND WEAKER SOUTHERLY WINDS BEING FORECAST AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WATER LEVELS JUST BARELY
TOUCHING MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS WITH THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SE
SWELLS AT AROUND 6 FT. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT
DEVELOPMENT DURING FRIDAY WITH SE SWELLS LOWERING TO 4 TO 5 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ353.
SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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